Preview for the Weekend of Friday, March 22, 2024
Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire and Immaculate debut to continue March's strong trend, but can they scare up an audience?
Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire
Serving as a legacy sequel that continues the storyline from Ghostbusters: Afterlife, this next installment aims to evoke nostalgia for our iconic 1980s characters, with Bill Murray, Dan Aykroyd, and Ernie Hudson returning with more substantial roles than their previous small cameos. Additionally, the younger crowd has something to appreciate as Finn Wolfhard, McKenna Grace, and Celeste O’Connor reprise their respective roles, alongside Paul Rudd. Is there anyone out there who does not like Paul Rudd in 2024?
On paper, this feels like a sure-fire hit, but is this the reality? Since the first teaser trailer dropped on November 8, 2023, the answer feels like a resounding no.
The teaser felt very cheap, resembling more of a knockoff of 2004’s The Day After Tomorrow than a genuine Ghostbusters film. However, subsequent trailers have garnered more appeal, and in recent weeks, tracking projections have increased. Not much has been revealed about its quality yet, but last Friday, EmpireCity Box Office released a statement indicating that Frozen Empire "Was a lot better than I thought it was going to be. Maybe it can get to a $50m opening with good WOM, but not sure how to judge this one yet." This brought a sigh of relief, as at one point, I believed this film was heading towards being DOA.
Between 2016’s Ghostbusters opening at $46 million and Afterlife at $44 million, the built-in fanbase seems inclined to expect openings in the mid-forties range, which is right where I anticipate this next installment to land. Toward the end of the pandemic in late 2021, Afterlife achieved healthy numbers and was well-received by audiences. However, its run was somewhat insignificant in terms of boosting the franchise's appeal in the US or overseas. Nevertheless, it did not deter many fans, and its $129.3 million domestic and $204.3 million worldwide totals were sufficient to justify a sequel.
Whatever the case may be this weekend, Frozen Empire needs a strong opening because its runway is fairly limited with Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire smashing its way into theaters next weekend. However, April looks relatively dull, so expect a potential rebound in the proceeding weeks.
Immaculate
Fans of horror films and Sydney Sweeney will get a dose of new content this weekend with the release of Immaculate. Premiering last week at SXSW, this received a decisive reaction from critics, although the Rotten Tomatoes score has leaned more in its favor, currently standing at 71% from 35 reviewers. NEON, known for distributing divisive pictures like Infinity Pool, Triangle of Sadness, and even last December’s Ferrari, often elicits strong feelings from audiences, with some holding them in high regard while others not so much.
Despite an underwhelming marketing campaign, this film's awareness should not be an issue as it stars Sweeney, one of Hollywood's hottest and most talked-about rising stars following her breakout success in Anyone But You, which grossed $88 million domestically and $215 million worldwide. She followed that up with Madame Web, which, despite the awful reception and poor box office returns, I was quite impressed with how she handled the whole situation, unlike her co-star Dakota Johnson. Sweeney certainly brings a level of maturity to the industry and a desire to take on arthouse projects such as this.
However, with this being her third theatrical release in four months, I would advise Sweeney to take a brief pause from the spotlight to prevent audience fatigue. Nonetheless, audiences are likely enticed by seeing her name and curious to explore her upcoming projects. At this point, a mid-single digits opening seems likely, placing Immaculate in the range of another female-led film starring a religious figure, Cabrini, which opened to $7 million nearly two weeks ago.
This Weekend’s Forecast:
Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire - $42 million (New)
Kung Fu Panda 4 - $18 million (-41%)
Dune: Part Two - $17.5 million (-38%)
Immaculate - $5.5 million (New)
Arthur The King - $4.4 million (-43%)
Does anyone really care about films like Bob Marley: One Love anymore? Personally, I do not. Moving forward, I want to focus on newer and more relevant films that land in the Top 5. If you feel differently and would like me to continue with my Top 10 predictions for the weekend, let me know in the comments!
For weekends like this, I can see why you wouldn't do a Top 10. I mean, outside of Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, Immaculate, and the top three films from last weekend, is there really anything noteworthy to mention about what are going to be the bottom 10 movies? I'd say unless one of those films looks like it'll hit particular milestone or has some kind of historic drop, don't do a Top 10. Obviously do what you want, but I'd be fine with you spending more time on the films that are worth talking about.
Speaking of which, that transitions to a few things I want to say about Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire. Personally, I think walk-up business will be key in getting this film to over $40M. Looking at pre-sales, I started seeing a boost yesterday compared to the past few weeks where there wasn't a whole lot of traction. This just seems like one of those movies where the fanbase isn't as likely to purchase tickets right away. Maybe people genuinely aren't interested in seeing this sequel, but I'll have faith that most of the people who showed up for Afterlife will mostly show up for this one.
Also, it was just reported (via Variety) that the budget for this one was $100M. With Afterlife only grossing $204M on a $75M budget, it points to the problem with Sony trying to turn Ghostbusters into a franchise. It's never been that big internationally and despite Afterlife doing alright, it's not a strong enough number to warrant spending $100M on a sequel that could easily see diminishing returns. Sony holding the embargo doesn't do the film any favors either.
We'll see what happens, but this definitely looks like the weakest performer out of the four big March titles. Oh, and I'm hoping Immaculate does well.