Weekend Results for March 8-10, 2024
After a lackluster start, March appears poised to steer 2024 back on track, with Kung Fu Panda 4 grossing $58 million and Dune 2 trailing behind at $46 million.
Kung Fu Panda 4 - $58.2 million (New) in 4,035 locations
The rats certainly devoured their cheese this weekend to a much greater extent than I could have anticipated. The fourth installment in this well-received franchise easily surpassed the respective openings of the second and third installments, and fell just shy of the first, which premiered to $60.2 million in June 2008.Although upcoming weekends will see some films competing for Panda's audience, I anticipate decent longevity and a 3x multiplier that brings its domestic earnings to around $175 million.
What is also remarkable is the astonishingly low $85 million budget, ensuring this film should have no trouble achieving profitability. In comparison, the budgets of the previous installments ranged from $130-150 million. I suppose the absence of Angelina Jolie, Seth Rogen, David Cross, Jackie Chan, and Lucy Liu were contributing factors.
Word of mouth should not be an issue, given its respectable A- CinemaScore and positive reception from PostTrak audiences, with 80% expressing positivity and 59% definitely recommending it. The audience skewed towards males (58%), with 67% falling between the ages of 13-24. Notably, 18-24 year olds made up 48% of viewers, while Latinos and Hispanics accounted for 44% of sales, followed by Caucasians at 22%, Asians at 18%, and Blacks at 11%.
One of the biggest takeaways is the resurgence of Jack Black. About 10 years ago Kung Fu Panda was really all he had following the disastrous critical and financial performances of Year One, Gulliver’s Travels, and The Big Year. His portrayal of R.L. Stine in 2015's Goosebumps marked a return to form that audiences embraced. Two years later, after starring in Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle, his career trajectory took a notable turn.
I was initially hesitant about this film's prospects due to the absence of The Furious Five, but this installment successfully demonstrated that Black's portrayal of Po is widely embraced and welcomed by audiences.
This weekend should be a cause for celebration for Universal Pictures and should serve as a signal to Hollywood that there is a need for more content releases, particularly for those seeking kid-friendly options. The twelve-week gap between Migration and Kung Fu Panda 4 is simply too long, and no, the Disney Plus theatrical releases are not being considered because all three were entirely ignored by audiences.
Dune: Part Two - $46 million (-44%) in 4,074 locations (+3)
While its predecessor experienced a significant drop of 62% in its second frame due to being somewhat front-loaded, Part Two continues to surpass it in nearly every aspect, with a remarkable 43% drop, which was on par with Oppenheimer during its second weekend. Accumulating a total of $157 million domestically after a week of release, this film has shown steady legs and holds the potential to surpass $200 million by next weekend.
At this rate, a reasonable estimate for its final earnings falls in the range of $275 million, with the possibility of reaching $300 million not to be discounted, especially if the film garners Oscar buzz later this year. Assuming it concludes at $275 million, this would represent a substantial 2.52x increase over Dune’s $108.8 million. Such a performance would place it in the league of The Dark Knight, which achieved 2.59 times the earnings of Batman Begins. This would mark a remarkable feat for a sequel that initially faced hesitancy in being greenlit.
Worldwide, Part Two has amassed $367.5 million thus far, driven by a $19.7 million opening weekend in China. At this pace, reaching $700 million seems like a reasonable goal.
Roughly ten months ago, CEO of Warner Bros. Discovery, David Zaslav, faced boos while delivering a commencement speech for the graduating class at Boston University. Despite controversies like the shelving of Batgirl and likely Salem’s Lot and Coyote vs. Acme, he has commendably revived the company's standing after it succumbed to the streaming revolution, primarily through the initiation of "Project Popcorn." I am particularly optimistic about their outlook for the remainder of 2024. Recent test screenings have garnered substantial praise for George Miller’s Furiosa, suggesting it that it is a crowdpleaser and has the ability to perform well upon its release in May.
Imaginary - $10 million (New) in 3,118 locations
As anticipated, Jeff Wadlow's streak of poorly received films persisted this weekend, with Imaginary garnering subpar reviews and a C+ CinemaScore. Additionally, PostTrak audiences rated it positively at only 57%. Anticipate relatively weak performance in the coming weeks, likely pushing its domestic total to around $20 million, but not surpassing that mark significantly.
The demographics showed a skew towards women, comprising 53%, with 62% falling within the 18-34 age range. Among them, 18-24-year-olds represented 32%, while an additional 20% accompanied the 13-17 age group. In terms of diversity, 38% were Latino/Hispanic, 35% Caucasian, 17% Black, and 6% Asian.
As seen with Night Swim, the horror genre has yet to make a significant breakthrough this year, unlike the robust performances of ME3GAN and Scream VI last year. The genre will have another chance in four weeks with the release of The First Omen.
Cabrini - $7.6 million (New) in 2,840 locations
After directing last summer's smash-hit, Sound of Freedom, director Alejandro Gómez Monteverde reunited with Angel Studios, aiming to replicate a similar success with Cabrini. While it performed notably better than The Shift and After Death, it was expected, given its hefty $50 million production budget. The $7.6 million opening aligns with my prediction, but I had hoped for the breakout potential that, unfortunately, did not materialize.
Fueled by excellent reviews, an A CinemaScore, and 94% positive on PostTrak, expect some longevity during the upcoming weekends. This film attracted a older audience as the 55+ crowd signified a substantial 49% of the crowd. Caucasians drew 65% of the sales, followed by Latino and Hispanic at 21%, Asian 6%, Black 4%, and other at 5%. Coincidentally, just ten minutes down the road, The Regal UA King of Prussia Cinema was Cabrini’s highest-grossing theater this weekend, with $29k in revenue.
On a final note, while I am sure Cristiana Dell’Anna was excellent as the lead, casting a bigger female star in the role could have potentially added a couple of extra million dollars to its weekend total. Granted, however, there are not many Italian actresses who have broken out in Hollywood, with the biggest probably being Monica Bellucci, who is 59 years old.
Bob Marley: One Love - $4 million (-44%) in 2,764 locations (-626)
With $89.3 million earned after twenty-five days of release, One Love continues to hold its ground and edge closer to the $100 million milestone. The upcoming weeks will seal its fate, yet there is a nagging feeling it might fall slightly shy. Nevertheless, this has been an exceptional performance that has significantly surpassed expectations.
Ordinary Angels - $2 million (-45%) in 2,323 locations (-697)
Despite its feel-good message and an A+ CinemaScore, this film deserved a better outcome. Nonetheless, it has shown solid staying power, amassing a total of $16.1 million after three weeks in theaters. At this juncture, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret had reached $16.4 million with a $2.5 million third weekend before concluding its run at $20.3 million.
Madame Web - $1.125 million (-64%) in 2,015 locations (-1,101)
The embarrassing run of Madame Web continues as it has amassed a meager $42.6 million after twenty five days of release.
Migration - $1.1 million (-55%) in 1,507 locations (-697)
The release of Kung Fu Panda 4 undeniably impacted Migration, but after nearly three months in theaters, it is now time for new releases to shine. Its current box office total stands at a respectable $125.3 million.
YOLO - $840k (New) in 200 locations
This Chinese comedy/drama slipped under my radar earlier this week but managed to achieve a respectable gross despite its limited theatrical run.
Wonka - $600k (-65%) in 1,004 locations (-728)
Wonka has enjoyed an impressive run, much like Migration, but it is time to shift focus now. Anticipate a relatively quick decline moving forward as it lost many theaters following its release on Max this past Friday.
The Dragon Warrior has officially beaten The Lisan Al Gaib at the box office! Ok, in all seriousness though, a $58M opening for Kung Fu Panda 4 is absolutely fantastic. Thought it would do at least $45M, but near $60M? That's really impressive and is another massive win for movie theaters that they desperately needed. If it can hold it's own against Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, then $200M domestically could be a strong possibility. Even if it doesn't get there, it's still a hit and a pretty well-deserved one at that.
Also, glad to see Dune: Part Two have an incredibly strong hold. However, I do want to say this. Though the rest of Warner Bros.' 2024 slate looks promising, most of them are huge question marks in terms of becoming financial successes or not. I said sometime back in December that Dune: Part Two is the only surefire hit that Warner Bros. has for 2024. As it turns out, it ended up being a massive hit.
I'm sure WB will score some much needed wins this year, but a lot of that is dependent on if audiences care to see any of these sequels or new installments in popular franchises. Doesn't help either that some of them (Joker 2, Furiosa) cost $200M or more. Hopefully I'm wrong and some of these movies can break out (I have high hopes for Furiosa), but none of these are guaranteed to be hits in the same way Dune: Part Two was.