Weekend Results for March 22-24, 2024
Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire claims the crown, while Immaculate meets expectations
Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire - $45.2 million (New) in 4,345 locations
While not a groundbreaking opening, the $45 million debut suggests that this long-running franchise may still have some life left, matching the performance of Afterlife and 2016's Ghostbusters. The question going forward is its longevity, given the relatively mixed reception with a 43% critic rating on Rotten Tomatoes and a B+ CinemaScore. However, it seems no one outright hates the film. PostTrak data reveals 4 stars from audiences, with 80% expressing positivity and 66% definitively recommending it, just shy of Afterlife's 82% positive rating and 69% recommendation rate.
As indicated during the weekend preview, this film will compete with Godzilla x Kong next weekend which will target the same audience and claim most of its PLF screens. We could see a comparable situation to last March's Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves, which experienced a substantial 63% drop in weekend two against the opening of The Super Mario Brothers, but recovered during a rather bare April. After its $37.2 million start, Dungeons & Dragons finished at $93.2 million, so if Frozen Empire shows a similar performance, it could reach around $113 million.
Against a $100 million budget, this outcome would not be disastrous, but certainly not ideal for Sony, especially considering the limited overseas appeal. By seemingly raising the stakes and making additions to the cast, this next installment promised to be even bigger, so on paper, the numbers of Afterlife should represent the floor. But reaching its respective totals of $129.3 million domestic and $209.3 million worldwide could be a stretch for Frozen Empire.
When evaluating our demographics, males represented 55%, with 46% of the crowd falling between the ages of 25 and 44 years old. The older demographic was indicated by our steady backlog of sales throughout the weekend. Its 9.61x weekend multiple (starting with $4.7 million in Thursday previews) falls short of Afterlife, which achieved a 9.77x multiple during its opening frame, but surpasses big 2024 titles such as Dune: Part Two, which managed a 6.87x multiple.
Overall, this start should suffice for Sony. Theatrically, I would be surprised if Frozen Empire manages to break even, but this outlook could easily shift once it hits streaming platforms. However, I recommend ending this franchise now. Continuing with the Paul Rudd and Carrie Coon storyline could lead to a situation similar to that of Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore or The Divergent Series: Allegiant where a future installment pays for the sins of its predecessor.
Dune: Part Two - $17.6 million (-38%) in 3,437 locations (-410)
The release of Ghostbusters undoubtedly affected Dune by claiming the PLF and IMAX screens; nonetheless, it held firm in weekend four and has generated $233.3 million thus far. Godzilla vs. Kong will present more competition next weekend, but reaching $275 million and approaching $300 million domestically still seems like a reasonable endpoint.
After four weeks, Dune has amassed a worthy $574.4 million worldwide and holds the potential to surpass the $700 million mark in the upcoming weeks.
Kung Fu Panda 4 - $16.8 million (-44%) in 3,805 locations (-262)
This lost a lot of momentum this week due to universities returning from spring break and the release of Ghostbusters. Although $133.2 million domestically after three weeks is nothing to downplay, especially for an $85 million production. Reaching $200 million seemed like a possibility after last weekend, but its chances have slimmed down as its sights are still set on $175 million. After Godzilla vs. Kong next weekend, Panda will have all of April to leg out without the release of other kid-targeted films, so it will be interesting to witness its trajectory.
Overseas, this has continued its gradual expansion and has acquired $268.1 million so far. Its endpoint seems rather murky given its release in more major markets next weekend, but something in the vicinity of $500 million appears likely.
Immaculate - $5.4 million (New) in 2,354 locations
As an arthouse horror film from NEON, this is a solid start that did not need to reach the $10 million heights of Night Swim and Imaginary from earlier this year. Without Sydney Sweeney, it would have never come close to $5.4 million or even received a theatrical release, so kudos to her for fueling this debut. Immaculate marks another step in the right direction for Sweeney that enhances her acting capabilities beyond what viewers and audiences witnessed in Euphoria and Anyone But You.
Looking ahead, there is competition with the release of The First Omen on April 5 and the audience reception has not been stellar. PostTrak audiences gave this a 52% positive rating and only a 30% definite recommendation, while the CinemaScore landed at a C (fairly average for a horror film). But with a production budget of just $10 million, financially, this film will not be doomed.
When analyzing the demographics, the presence of the Sweeney fanbase was unmistakable this weekend, with females comprising 52% of the audience, and 75% falling within the 18-34 age range, with the largest subset being 25-34 at 39%. The diversity breakdown was 44% Caucasian, 30% Latino and Hispanic, 11% Black, 10% Asian, and 5% Native American.
While Malignant boasted a day-and-date release on HBO Max, James Wan's name propelled the film to an opening of $5.4 million, culminating in a $13.3 million total back in 2021. Moving forward, it will be intriguing to observe Immaculate's performance in comparison to this title.
Arthur The King - $4.3 million (-43%) in 3,003 locations
Despite the competition from other films aimed at a similar audience, Arthur The King had a respectable second weekend thanks to strong word-of-mouth. Boasting an A CinemaScore and a 98% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes, audiences are clearly loving this film. However, it is unfortunate that it was released amidst a wave of big titles.
With $14.6 million in domestic earnings after two weeks of release, this is on track to surpass $20 million by the end of its theatrical run, barring any significant drops in theater count or a steep decline in its performance next weekend.
If we ignore the fact that March has been carried by franchise films, it's been doing very well so far. Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire hitting $45M in its opening just proves that. I was getting worried that this wasn't going to hit $40M, but it ended up right at the high end of predictions. Obviously, the budget is $25M higher than Afterlife, but that's still not a bad opening. Was pleasantly surprised to see it just open above Afterlife. If it doesn't get destroyed by Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire next weekend, $100M domestically is all but guaranteed.
If I were Sony, I'd say make at least one more installment in this franchise. Not just so they can have a trilogy, but they can try to do what was originally supposed to be done with Frozen Empire. Release it in December and have those great holiday season legs.
I don't know what Sony will do, but this opening must be an encouraging sign to them that Ghostbusters is far from a dead franchise. I still don't think it was the best idea to make a sequel on a significantly higher budget when the previous film barely made more than $200M worldwide, but I won't rule out that this one could potentially break even after this start.
Commenting to ya rn, watching Ghostbusters Rn!