Weekend Results for March 15-17, 2024
Panda reclaims the lead, with Dune closely trailing by $900k, while Arthur is no king
Kung Fu Panda 4 - $30 million (-48%) in 4,067 theaters
The power of Kung Fu Panda 4 should not be underestimated, as I mistakenly ranked it at number two during the past two weekends. With $107.7 million after a week of release, it is slightly trailing behind the first installment, which had $117.2 million at this point, but ahead of the second and third installments at $100 million and $69.2 million, respectively. Its 48% drop also aligns perfectly with the holds of the previous installments which fell between 44-49%.
After the ho-hum numbers generated by Kung Fu Panda 3 in 2016, I expected the downward trajectory to continue. But this has not been the outcome. Whether it is a case of the rats eating their cheese or nostalgia being at play, audiences are embracing and clearly enjoying this film. The next two weekends will be busy with Ghostbusters and Godzilla x Kong, but I expect these titles to attract a slightly older crowd that does not overlap considerably with Panda’s business.
Last weekend, I estimated this to wrap up around $175 million, but now I am inclined to adjust it slightly to $175-200 million. In April, the majority of titles cater to an adult audience, and May does not offer much competition until The Garfield Movie debuts over Memorial Day Weekend. Expect a promising trajectory ahead, and it would not be surprising to hear an announcement for Kung Fu Panda 5 in the near future.
Worldwide, this stands at $176.5 million after a sturdy $13.6 million debut in Mexico this weekend.
Dune: Part Two - $29.1 million (-37%) in 3,847 theaters (-227)
The power of Dune’s sensational word of mouth and high PLF demand continues to shine, even after three weeks of release. With a running total of $205.3 million, its legs will continue to endure, even as it will lose screens to Ghostbusters and Godzilla x Kong. The identical weekend trajectory to Oppenheimer is still apparent as both films grossed $29.1 million in weekend three. Although, Oppenheimer’s seventeen day total is significantly higher at $228.9 million due to the summer weekday holds.
$275 million feels like a safe bet domestically, with the potential to cross $300 million if Warner Brothers does not drop this on Max too early. Sensational results, and this is an example of a sequel done right.
Its worldwide total also stands at a healthy $494.7 million currently, and I still stand to the $700 million estimate I provided last weekend. Following the previous success of $630 million for Wonka, this is tremendous for Chalamet, who is easily the biggest rising star of our time right now.
Arthur the King - $7.5 million (New) in 3,003 theaters
Whether it was a lack of awareness or audiences opting for Kung Fu Panda 4, this is a disappointing figure for a film that fell below expectations. Despite more of a presence on streaming recently, I also believed Wahlberg’s name could propel this film to at least $10 million. However, considering Lionsgate properly budgeted this at $20 million, achieving an over/under $20 million domestic finish for a film likely to perform well on PVOD/streaming is not the end of the world.
One important thing to note is that domestic gross comprises both the United States and Canada. Since Arthur The King did not release in theaters in Canada, its $7.5 million opening includes only US ticket sales. This factor, which I was not aware of going into the weekend, would likely have led me to downgrade my initial $13 million projection.
The word of mouth is solid, as evidenced by the A CinemaScore and 4.5 stars with 75% definitely recommending it on PostTrak. However, this positive reception could get lost in the shuffle given the weekends ahead. The release schedule for 2024 has been quite off-putting. If this had been released in late January or early February, we would likely have seen an outcome more comparable to Dog starring Channing Tatum. Instead, Lionsgate chose to release it in March, where it will most likely be overlooked due to the other titles currently on the market. This is an unfortunate result for a feel-good and heartwarming tale that audiences seem to be latching onto.
As for the demographics, there was an even split between men and women, with 36% of moviegoers between 18-34 and another 40% over 45. The largest demos were 25-34 at 23% and over 55 at 22%, which is quite surprising considering this looked like it was aimed at families and younger audiences. 52% of the audience was Caucasian, 25% Latino and Hispanic, 8% Black and 10% Asian.
Imaginary - $5.6 million (-44%) in 3,118 theaters
This marks a solid hold for a film with a poor reception. But as with animation, the rats need to eat their cheese when it comes to horror films. Imaginary has grossed $19.1 million domestically and looks to close around $30 million before exiting theaters. Not a bad result, and another win for Blumhouse thanks to their strategic budgeting and marketing.
Cabrini - $2.8 million (-61%) in 2,850 theaters (+10)
This is a tragic fall for a film that had great buzz and a positive reception from audiences. With only $13 million so far against a 50 million production budget, Cabrini unfortunately seems to continue Angel Studio’s consensus as a one-hit wonder studio following the breakout success of last summer’s Sound of Freedom.
Love Lies Bleeding - $2.5 million in 1,362 theaters (+1,357)
While not off to an amazing start, this film has always faced a challenging sell due to its premise and themes. Anticipate moderate performance ahead, but it is unlikely to surpass the $10 million mark.
The Rotten Tomatoes score is at 92% certified fresh, but the PostTrak ratings for audiences are ho-hum at 3.5 years and 78% positive. Women dominated 60% of the ticket sales, with 18-34 being the largest demographic at 73%.
Bob Marley: One Love - $2.3 million (-44%) in 2272 theaters (-492)
With $93.3 million accumulated in just over five weeks since its release, the race is on to reach the $100 million milestone domestically!
One Life - $1.7 million (New) in 983 theaters
The American Society of Magical Negroes - $1.2 million (New) in 1,147 theaters
This film was overlooked in the weekend preview. After its disappointing start at festivals, I expected Focus Features to limit its release to very few theaters. Surprisingly, it reached over 1,000 theaters, but its per-screen average barely hit $1k, signaling a concerning trend.
While I am always supportive of new directors and talents, it appears Kobi Libii might struggle to establish a career following this directorial debut.
Additionally, the PostTrak ratings are discouraging, with only a 70% positive response and a mere 51% definite recommendation. Males slightly outnumbered females in attendance at 51%, and the 18-34 age group accounted for roughly half of the audience. In terms of diversity, the demographics include 50% Black, 31% Caucasian, 11% Latino and Hispanic, and 5% Asian.
Ordinary Angels - $1 million (-50%) in 1,753 (-570) theaters