Weekend Results for March 1-3, 2024
Dune: Part Two opens commendably with $81.5 million domestically and $178.5 million worldwide, with promising prospects for sustained success
Dune: Part Two - $81.5 million (New) in 4,051 locations
A very impressive turnout for a film that truly deserved success this weekend. Despite my higher estimate in the weekend preview, as mentioned, this film will endure and maintain its appeal among moviegoers. The strong presence of IMAX and PLF screens drove 48% of the gross, resulting in consistent sellouts throughout the weekend in most major cities, even during early showings. This trend mirrors the demand seen with films like Avatar: The Way of Water and Oppenheimer, indicating that audiences are keen to experience epic productions on the largest and highest-quality screens available. PostTrak data also revealed that 47% of viewers expressed a preference for watching Dune: Part Two again in theaters rather than at home, underscoring the enduring allure of the theatrical experience.
It is worth noting that Dune skewed slightly more toward older audiences than younger ones. Analyzing the demographics reveals that the 18-34 age group constituted 55% of the audience, with the 24-34 segment being the most prominent subset at 34%. Conversely, the over 35 demographic represented 41% of viewers.
Looking ahead, this $81.5 million should hold the record for the highest opening in 2024 for a few months, possibly until June 14 when Inside Out 2 is released. Historically, March releases have shown considerable endurance, exemplified by successes such as The Batman (2.755 multiplier), Captain Marvel (2.782x), and Beauty and the Beast (2.884x), suggesting a similar trend this time around. At the very least, a domestic gross of $200 million should be expected, marking a substantial increase over its predecessor’s $108.8 million total. Next weekend will determine just how much it surpasses the $200 million mark by. Worldwide, Dune grossed $178.5 million across 71 markets. Moreover, the film boasts excellent word-of-mouth, with sensational Rotten Tomatoes scores and an A CinemaScore, alongside 5 stars and 94% on PostTrak.
After a challenging theatrical run in 2021 and 2022, it is refreshing to see Warner Brothers getting back on track (though DC Studios still has hurdles to overcome). With upcoming releases like Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire later this month, Furiosa in May, and Joker: Folie A Deux in November, they have films that, on paper, should achieve respectable box office figures. It is also encouraging to see them taking risks with filmmakers like Kevin Costner with his Horizon installments and Paul Thomas Anderson, whose next film is set to have a production budget of around $115 million. While Disney seems to be opting for the easier route by churning out meaningless sequels and remakes of their classics, I respect Warner Brothers decision to take a different approach.
The outstanding opening carries significant implications for the cast, particularly favoring newer stars like Timothee Chalamet, Zendaya, and Austin Butler over veterans such as Josh Brolin and Javier Bardem. Chalamet, in particular, has delivered an exceptional performance in his recurring role as Paul Atreides. With this success and his role in Wonka, he is experiencing a remarkable two-hit film sequence that no other lead actors currently possess. If Challengers and Twisters both succeed upon their releases, Zendaya and Glenn Powell also have the potential to follow a similar path, which is an excellent development for our new wave of leading stars. Whatever the future holds, expect big things because Chalamet has the ability to be our next Leonardo DiCaprio, Brad Pitt, Tom Cruise, or Matt Damon.
As for Butler, I thoroughly enjoyed his villainous performance as Feyd-Rautha. While I had previously seen him briefly in Once Upon A Time In Hollywood, and he was tremendous as Elvis, one more role was necessary for me to form a true impression of him as an actor following his Disney Channel days. Now, after watching Dune: Part Two, I am fully on board the Austin Butler train and eagerly anticipate his next outing in The Bikeriders.
Finally, PostTrak later conveyed that 54% of the audience bought a ticket this weekend because Dune is part of a franchise they love, 33% came because of Denis Villeneuve, 29% for Chalamet and Butler, and 21% for Zendaya. This Villeneuve statistic is very impressive, suggesting that his name alone carries significant weight. While his distinctive style may not yet quite rival that of Christopher Nolan, Quentin Tarantino, James Cameron, or Jordan Peele, this is a step in the right direction for a director who has consistently delivered quality films for over ten years.
Bob Marley: One Love - $7.4 million (-45%) in 3,390 locations (-207)
Although One Love has held its ground more comparably to Straight Outta Compton than to Elvis or Bohemian Rhapsody, this outcome was expected given the larger-than-anticipated opening. With a running total of $82.8 million after eighteen days of release, reaching $100 million is within reach. If Paramount decides to maintain its presence in theaters to give it that extra push to cross this milestone, that would be fantastic, but it is understandable if they choose not to. A few months ago, no one could have predicted such high levels of success.
Ordinary Angels - $3.9 million (-37%) in 3,020 locations
After a smaller-than-expected opening, Ordinary Angels had a respectable week and held decently this weekend. With $12.6 million after two weeks, its performance is reminiscent of last year’s Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, which had $12.5 million after a $6.7 million start at this point before concluding at $20.3 million. At this point, it is reasonable to expect Ordinary Angels to land at around a comparable figure.
Madame Web - $3.2 million (-45%) in 3,116 locations (-897)
Well, it took eighteen days, but Madame Web has finally surpassed the $39 million opening weekend of Morbius. Sony, when will you learn that these films do more harm than good to your Spider-Man IP and the state of superhero films in general?
The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 7-8 - $3.1 million (New) in 2,235 locations
Very similar to the $3.6 million opening for The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 4-6 two weeks ago. Major kudos to Fathom Events for developing such an effective release strategy. Other studios should definitely take notes!
Migration - $2.5 million (-13%) in 2,204 locations (-230)
With $123.5 million after eleven weeks of release, Migration has taken full advantage of a dismal market for kid-friendly films. But, as with everything, all good things must come to an end. Its reign appears to be winding down, especially with the release of Kung Fu Panda 4 next weekend.
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba - To the Hashira Training - $2.1 million (-82%) in 1,949 locations
As expected, a massive drop in weekend two was anticipated given the fanbase. Regardless, this television adaptation has generated $15.5 million theatrically for both theaters and Sony.
Wonka - $1.7 million (-29%) in 1,732 locations (-471)
Back to Timothee Chalamet! Wonka has amassed a mighty $216.8 million after twelve weeks of release. Look for this to fall just shy of $220 million before arriving on Max on March 8.
Argylle - $1.4 million (-49%) in 2,283 locations (-83)
Argylle has only reached a disappointing $43.8 million after five weeks and seems poised to finish in the range of The Man From U.N.C.L.E.
The Beekeeper - $1.1 million (-42%) in 1,347 locations (-810)
The power of Statham continues to shine, as I mistakenly had this film outside of the top 10. The Beekeeper has accumulated $64.9 million after eight weeks of release.
Couldn't agree more with everything you said about Dune: Part Two. To go from the $76M projected on Saturday to $81.5M (just $500,000 away from doubling the opening weekend of the first Dune) on Sunday morning is quite remarkable. For me, it's definitely a sign of the fantastic word-of-mouth this film had throughout the weekend. If you take out the $12M in previews that were added to the Friday gross, then the film would've been up just over 40% from Friday to Saturday. Amazing stuff!
With all of the strong momentum behind this film, it's for sure to pass $200M domestically soon. Worldwide is a different story, but hopefully somewhere around $600M. Also, as much as I'm fairly confident that Kung Fu Panda 4 will take the #1 spot next weekend, this weekend says that we could be in for a very tight race between the two films in the upcoming week.
First thing off, Short of my $101 million prediction, but actuals for sunday for Dune 2 will beat Oppehenimer for sure I feel like, and how the actaul fuck Madame Web still sticks in Top 5 lol? That movie deserves to be out of the Top 5 period even Top 10!
Great opening weekend for Dune 2!