Weekend Results for February 16-19, 2024
Bob Marley: One Love sings its way to tremendous opening numbers, while Madame Web marks another disastrous entry in Sony's Spider-Man universe
Bob Marley: One Love - $27.7 million (New) in 3,559 locations; $33.2 million (4-Day); $51 million (6-Day)
After weeks of underperforming new releases, One Love provided the spark that the box office desperately needed. Exploding out of the gate with $14 million on its opening Wednesday, the film was fairly front-loaded during the remainder of its frame, but that was expected given the passionate Bob Marley fanbase. However, something to consider is the longevity of this film. We have seen movies targeting similar crowds, such as All Eyez on Me and The Color Purple, open strongly but crash during subsequent weekends.
I am inclined to think that One Love will have fairly decent legs given the positive buzz and goodwill surrounding it. Despite harsh criticism from some critics, audiences are loving it. In addition to an impressive A CinemaScore, the PostTrak scores stand at 5 stars with 91% positive, which is almost identical to The Color Purple at 5 stars and 92% positive.
A statement from RelishMix indicated, “The footage released was emotionally moving to fans, who are heading to the theater saying ‘its a long time coming, for a Bob Marley biopic.'” I underestimated the profound impact of Marley’s legacy, and it is gratifying to witness a film resonating with audiences as One Love currently is.
Women represented 56% of the turnout, and Deadline noted that this is somewhat of a date night movie, perfect for Valentine's Day, with 30% attending with their spouse and 21% going with a date. What sets One Love apart from The Color Purple is its feel-good and date-friendly vibe, along with opening during a less crowded period, which could contribute to its potential for sustained success.
Black moviegoers led the demographics at 40%, followed by Latino and Hispanic audiences at 25%, Caucasians at 23%, and Asian Americans at 5%. 52% of the total audience is over the age of 35, with the largest demographic being 35-44 at 22%. It is challenging to project how high One Love can climb domestically, but somewhere in the ballpark of $100 million seems likely if it does not experience a significant drop-off next weekend.
Following Mean Girls, One Love represents another solid win for Paramount. With a production budget of $70 million, this marks a significant investment, but Marley's international appeal should easily assist in reaching or approaching theatrical profitability. Its current global total stands at around $80 million.
Madame Web - $15.1 million (New) in 4,013 locations; $17.6 million (4-Day); $25.8 million (6-Day)
Sony, what is happening here? This film seemed doomed from the start, even before the first trailer and the mixed attempts at marketing, largely due to the involvement of writers Matt Sazama and Burk Sharpless. Their track record includes such disappointments as Dracula Untold, The Last Witch Hunter, Gods of Egypt, plus the comedic failure of Morbius. Why would Sony choose to rehire these fools for another project within the same cinematic universe? It raises genuine questions about their commitment to producing quality films. The repeated failure of Spider-Man spin-offs, both critically and financially, should serve as a warning sign to Sony. These films contribute significantly to the so-called "superhero fatigue" era, and attaching the Marvel logo to movies like Morbius and Madame Web reflects poorly on the MCU's efforts to prioritize quality over quantity as they are working hard to restore its brand reputation. I also fear for Kraven The Hunter and Venom 3, as they are likely to face the consequences of Madame Web's missteps.
But enough said on this. Madame Web drew in more men which represented 53% of the audience, with men over 25 at 31%, followed by women over 25 at 24%. The PostTrak scores are also awful with a star and a half and 54% positive, on top of a C+ CinemaScore (the same as Morbius). After six days of release, Morbius accumulated $45.5 million domestically before going on to finish at $73.8 million. While not an apples to apples comparison because Madame Web opened on a Wednesday, identical legs will get this to a disastrous $41.8 million.
Its sole saving grace lies in its budget, standing at $80 million. While the film is unlikely to turn a profit theatrically, it will not plunge into the financial abyss akin to disasters like The Flash or The Marvels, thanks to its appropriately managed budget.
Whatever the outcome holds for the film's stars, especially Sydney Sweeney, let's hope the effects are not too drastic. On paper, starring in a Spider-Man spin-off film seems like the right thing to do, but this presents a worst-case scenario for Sweeney after her breakout success in Anyone But You. However, the fact that she is not the lead role does bring some optimism to this situation.
Argylle - $4.7 million (-24%) in 3,647 locations (+42); $5.5 million (4-Day)
After a disappointing opening and a steep fall in its second weekend, Argylle managed to stabilize, bringing its two-week total up to $37.2 million domestically. This is likely to land in the range of $40-45 million domestically, which is not bad for an original film released in 2024. But considering the stacked cast, marquee director, and massive budget, these numbers are deemed unacceptable. Apple needs to reconsider their release strategy for such high-profile releases.
Migration - $3.7 million (+28%) in 2,455 locations (-229); $5 million (4-Day)
Migration continues to shine, capitalizing on the weak landscape for kid-friendly releases. Its nine-week total stands at $116 million, which is impressive considering my initial skepticism during the early stages of its release. Migration has another three weeks to itself before Kung Fu Panda 4 takes the stage on March 8.
The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 4-6 - $3.4 million (New) in 2,240 locations; $4.1 million (4-Day), $4.8 million (5-Day)
Similar to the previous installment two weekends ago, these Chosen entries have loyal fanbases who make the effort to catch them in theaters before they drop on streaming platforms. This release strategy has proven to be effective for Fathom Events, and I hope they continue to utilize it for future productions.
Wonka - $3.4 million (+11%) in 2,347 locations (-417); $4.4million (4-Day)
With $210.8 million accumulated after ten weeks of release, Wonka's impressive run continues as it steadily closes in on Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania at $214.5 million, positioning itself to become the seventh highest-grossing domestic release of 2023. Who would have ever thought at the start of 2023 that Timothee Chalamet as Willy Wonka would outgross two out of three MCU releases both domestically and worldwide? It is quite remarkable to see how much the tables have turned, and I am eagerly anticipating Chalamet's return to the character of Paul Atreides in Dune: Part Two in less than two weeks' time.
The Beekeeper - $3.2 million (-4%) in 2,557 locations (-500); $3.9 million (4-Day)
Apart from another weekend with an exceptional hold from The Beekeeper, there is not much else to report. The film will have generated $60.5 million by tomorrow and has its sights set to finish at around $65-70 million by the end of its run. Tremendous results for a veteran action star like Jason Statham, and I am patiently awaiting the announcement of future Beekeeper installments.
Anyone But You - $2.4 million (-9%) in 2,020 locations (-785); $2.8 million (4-Day)
Fueled by a hearty $1.1 million on February 14 for Valentine’s Day, Anyone But You had a tremendous week, and the momentum carried its way into the weekend. With $85.1 million in the bank after nine weeks of release, it is unlikely to reach $100 million domestically but should settle for a tremendous $90 million, which is lightyears higher than anyone could have expected. However, Sweeney deserved a much better follow-up than what she got this weekend with Madame Web.
Lisa Frankenstein - $2 million (-45%) in 3,143 locations (-1); $2.3 million (4-Day)
This took a nasty fall after securing the second-place title on the box office charts last weekend. Lisa Frankenstein will have amassed $8 million by tomorrow, which is around what some had projected for its opening weekend. Expect it to cross $10 million, but not by much. Hopefully, it finds a new life on PVOD or streaming because Kathryn Newton is a talented young actress who deserves better.
Land of Bad - $1.8 million (New) in 1,330 locations; $2 million (4-Day)
Starring Liam and Luke Hemsworth, along with Russell Crowe, this film completely flew under the radar when analyzing this weekend's box office. The numbers were pretty disastrous, but considering it looked like a direct-to-streaming film that received a theatrical release this weekend, there is not much to complain about in that regard.
I knew Paramount had found previous success with musical biopics (Rocketman), but I didn't expect Bob Marley: One Love to do this well. However, in a box office climate that's insanely weak, it's great to see a movie getting a lot of people into the theater. Hoping this one hits $100M domestically and finds decent success worldwide.
Also, Madame Web's opening is so bad that it makes Morbius' $39M opening look great in comparison. Even back in 2022, that opening was considered dissapointing compared to projections. This film probably would've done a bit better a few years ago, but now we're at a point where the superhero genre is as execution dependent as everything else. If you don't have a great superhero movie, then you're film is pretty much set up to fail. Though I'm sure Deadpool & Wolverine will do very well.