Trailer Tracking - The Many Saints of Newark
Will The Sopranos prequel be a Bada Bing at the box office?
Welcome to Trailer Tracking, where we predict a movie’s opening weekend Box Office just from watching the trailer.
Today we finally become made B.O. Boys as we watch the trailer for The Many Saints of Newark, dropping simultaneously in theaters and HBO Max on Oct 1, 2021.
Many Saints is a prequel to the legendary series The Sopranos, which aired on HBO from 1999-2007. Starring James Gandolfini as New Jersey Mafia kingpin Tony Soprano, the show arguably created the era of “Peak TV”, earned 21 Emmy Awards, and made “Big Pussy” a household name. But while it was a blockbuster hit on television, it never earned a dollar of theatrical box office.
Original Sopranos creator and showrunner David Chase returns to pen and produce the prequel film, which is directed by Alan Taylor— a celebrated TV helmer including Emmy-winning work on The Sopranos, but his most recent film was the 2015 domestic dud Terminator: Genisys. As Many Saints is set in the late 60s, none of the original cast of the TV series can return to star in the film, and new actors are portraying younger versions of the famous characters—such as Vera Farmiga as prototypical Italian mother Livia Soprano, Corey Stoll as Junior Soprano, and most notably James Gandolfini’s son Michael Gandolfini as a young Tony Soprano. None of these main cast members can be considered a major box-office star —though Vera Farmiga does have herself a sweet horror franchise with The Conjuring films, it’s still the ghosts who get the B.O. credit there.
Therefore to set a baseline we look to two other big screen adaptations of hit HBO series as precedent. In May 2008, Sex and the City blew away expectations to open at a boffo $57 million domestic. Tony and Carmella were arguably more popular than Carrie and Samantha in their time, so are we thinking $60 mil plus is where Many Saints starts? Nope, the better comp is June 2015’s Entourage movie which—like Many Saints— is opening long after the finale of its HBO series. (Unlike the Sex and the City film that opened only 4 years after its series had ended.) Entourage movie opened to a near Medellin-esque thud, with only $10.2 million domestic. Factoring in how Entourage movie actually had its entire TV cast returning PLUS a buzzy cameo from MMA fighter Ronda Rousey, we have to start Many Saints at about half that number. So if Vinny Chase pulled in $10.2, let’s figure that David Chase is starting at $5.1 million.
Starting Prediction = $5.1 Million
Let’s watch the trailer!
(0:03) James Gandolfini’s voice as Tony Soprano! ( + $10M)
(0:12) Annnd Michael Gandolfini with a not intimidating “Whadja say?” Our Tony is already potentially weak (tomato) sauce. ( - $9M)
(0:13) Various meats subtly hanging in the background. Nice Satriale’s tease. ( + $.5M)
(0:21) Shot of a high school hallway reminds us of the show’s various A.J. Soprano storylines ( - $3M)
(0:30) Tony is high IQ? So is this gonna be about Tony as a boy genius? Sorry, we want street smarts not book smarts. ( - $1M)
(0:34) Even though they’re still TALKING TONY’S GRADES, this is a fine Livia Soprano impression by Vera Farmiga. ( + $2M)
(0:39) Laying on his floor listening to music this guy looks more like Young Homer Simpson than Young Tony Soprano. ( - $2M)
(0:43) Great dismissive Livia snort from Vera. Center this movie on Mama S and we might have something here. ( + $1M)
(0:46) From David Chase! This makes us feel safe. ( + $4M)
(0:47) Aluminum siding, an awning above a driveway-side entrance, Dickie Moltisanti with greased-back hair also flashing chest hair and a gaudy chain. This makes us feel scared— in a good way. ( + $1M)
(0:50) Satriale’s Pork Store! It’s like seeing the Millennium Falcon in The Force Awakens trailer. ( + $5M)
(0:58) The vocals of the trailer song kicks in and… it’s NOT Woke Up This Morning (aka Got Yourself a Gun). ( - $10M)
(1:01) Young Tony with a goofy grin. ( - $1M)
(1:18) Why so much focus on Young Tony’s obsession with speakers? This isn’t a prequel to Vinyl! (Is it?) ( - $1M)
(0:1:29) Young Uncle Junior is wearing the hat! I know this is pure fan service but we are here to be serviced. ( + $2M)
(1:31) A tank rolling up through the streets of Jersey? That’s the type of “make it bigger for the big screen” that we don’t want. Tony rolling up in a Chevy Suburban was more than enough! ( - $2M)
(1:36) “Legends aren’t born, they’re made” is about the laziest tagline this movie could have gone with. ( - $1M)
(1:45) Ray Liotta doing the full RAY LIOTTA LAUGH! Sopranos never goes wrong when it pulls in GoodFellas cast members ( + $3M)
(1:50) Young Tony with a love tap rather than a proper gangster smack. ( - $2M)
(1:55) Mobster bathroom sex. Hard (soft) pass. ( - $1M)
(1:56) Several beats on a silent black screen. Gives fans PTSD about the series finale. Wrong kind of nostalgia! ( - $1M)
(2:08) Ray Liotta looking old but bad-ass as hell. He should be delivering the smacks! ( + $1M)
(2:12) Woke Up this Morning! There it is! They played the song. It’s like we’re all back on the New Jersey Turnpike on the way to the Bing. Pass the gabagool! ( + $10M)
In Summation
Though Michael Gandolfini leaves a lot to be desired filling his father’s shoes as the iconic Tony Soprano, this trailer provides hints at enough fan-pleasing elements— the pork store, Livia Soprano, Uncle June’s hat, Ray Liotta as a laughing psycho, the theme song as a closer— that we predict Tony and his crew will out-open Vinny Chase and his entourage.
Our Predicted Domestic Opening = $10.6 million