Trailer Tracking - Joker: Folie A Deux
The Joker is back! But will superhero fatigue and the fact that it's (GULP!) a musical, dampen the B.O. on one of cinemas most reliable draws?
Welcome to Trailer Tracking, where we predict a movie’s opening weekend Box Office just from watching the trailer.
Today we’re tackling the latest trailer for the much anticipated sequel to 2019’s Joker which netted $335.4 Million domestic and was a Billion Dollar Baby worldwide.
A lot of things have changed since the first Joker film opened to $96.2 Million in October of 2019. The biggest difference being that superhero movies are no longer the sure fire hit they once were. Now Joker was an outlier because it was more an homage to Scorsese and gritty ‘70s cinema than a neutered cape and cowl borefest. The novelty of the first film helped it clown its way to a stunning near $100 Million opening, but this time, Joaquin Phoenix’s Joker is a known (and Oscar winning) quantity.
The wild card here is Lady Gaga who, not counting a false start with 2013’s Machete Kills ($8 Million domestic) has become a reliable screen presence especially when she gets to sing. See 2018’s A Star Is Born (Gaga’s Version) gross of $215.2 Million domestic. Will the Little Monsters come out and support their queen? Or will the other Little Monsters (Joker fans) keep them away?
And speaking of singing.
Musicals are Hollywood’s dirty little secret, because they’re loathe to actually promote them for what they are. The general public might not know that this sequel is a (GULP!) musical. Does WB dare give it away in this trailer?
Starting Prediction = $80 Million
Let’s watch the trailer!
(0:12) That’s our Fleck! (+ $5M)
(0:24) Uh, oh! That’s Joaquin singing. Could this be…? ( - $10M)
(0:30) “Hello, Ma? I was just watching the latest Joker: Folie A Deux trailer and I saw the woman of my dreams.” ( + $25M)
(0:40) She did the right thing. ( + $5M)
(0:48) Dancing too? I’m getting a bad feeling about this! ( - $10M)
(0:59) Oh shiiiit! It’s a (GULP!) MUSICAL! ( - $40M)
(1:20) Nu Metal is back and so is the thumbs out, double bird! ( + $3M Dollar Bill, Ya’ll!)
(1:32) Timely Nixon reference ( - $5M)
(1:39) “…and then she smeared blood on her face. Wait Ma, don’t hang up!” ( + $15M)
(1:41) Joker pulling a Ted Bundy and defending himself. Respect. ( + $10M)
(1:48) Steve Coogan not playing Alan Partridge. ( - $10M)
(1:54) “But I LOVE HER!” (+ $10)
(1:59) Sonny & Cher homage. Very current. (- $10M)
(2:14) “Security! Jared Leto just ran on set!” ( - $20M)
(2:22) Joker AND Harley Quinn dancing on stairs! ( + $40M)
(2:28) No! don’t remind the audience it’s a ( GULP!) musical! ( - $15M)
(2:44) “I just wanted to take another look at you.” ( + $10M)
In Summation
The Joker: Folie A Deux outed itself as a musical, which could backfire. But Lady Gaga looks dynamite as Harley Quinn, and if anyone can make a musical a hit, she can. There’s also enough standard Joker hi-jinx—riots in the streets, riots in prison, dancing down stairs— to satiate the hardcore Joker fans, but it all looks overly familiar. And the dated reference won’t help draw in the coveted 18 -24 year olds. That said, I don’t think this sequel will reach the heights of its predecessor’s opening, or its final cume, but it will still open big.
Our Predicted Domestic Opening = $83 Million
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Awesome idea! Trailer Tracking is fun 👍🏻
Going little lower I suppose I’d say am going above and predict this opens around $120 Million which is above the last one!