Trailer Tracking - Jackass Forever Trailer #1
After 10 years on ice, can the Jackass franchise regain its Box Office glory? Or is this one stunt it can't pull off?
Welcome to Trailer Tracking, where we predict a movie’s opening weekend Box Office just from watching the trailer.
Today we’re tackling the first trailer for the fourth Jackass film, Jackass Forever.
It’s been almost 20 years since 2002’s Jackass: The Movie successful translated the hit MTV show to the big screen, scrapping together $22.7 Million on opening weekend and legging out to $64.2 Million Domestic — all on a $2 Million budget. Then came 2006’s Jackass Two, which outearned the first film with a $29 Million opening and $72.7 Domestic. But that was nothing compared to 2010’s Jackass 3D, which smacked the B.O. across the face with a huge $50.3 Million opening and a $117.2 Million Domestic haul. All three films opened at #1 at the Box Office, but Jackass 3D was over 10 years ago. Can the fourth film hit the same heights after such a long hiatus?
Sure, the Johnny Knoxville solo project Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa was a hit in 2013 — $32 Million opening and $102 Domestic — but 2018’s Knoxville and Chris “Party Boy” Pontius two-hander Action Park was a COLOSSAL face plant, opening to a piss poor $2.3 Million before dying out at $5 Million Domestic. Action Point didn’t have the Jackass Presents in front of the title and was a narrative film with stunts, but such a recent and calamitous failure gives us pause.
In addition to the long gap between official films, Jackass Forever is not only missing two of its key members — the late Ryan Dunn and the troubled Bam Margera — but has added some new, younger faces to the mix. These variables make it hard to know how hardcore Jackass fans will react.
Starting Prediction = $25 Million
Let’s watch the trailer!
(0:04) Hmmm… Boring black and white footage from 15 + years ago isn’t the best way to grab the audience’s attention ( - $5M)
(0:24) Now we’re in color! Except for Knoxville’s hair ( + $5M)
(0:25) Group shot with Knoxville doing his famous intro line! ( + $10M)
(0:32) Holy shit! That cannon stunt just blew the stench of Action Point’s bad B.O. out of the air!!! ( + $10M)
(0:34) The Jackass theme is the only Corona that comes close to the ones served at a La Familia cookout. ( + $10M)
(0:36) Don’t remind younger viewers that the stars of the movie are old and, more importantly, don’t remind older viewers that they’re old ( - $10M)
(0:49) Machine Gun Kelly?!? I know you whacked the guy in your movie, but you still let a wack guy be in your movie ( - $5M)
(0:58) Don’t tell us Knoxville’s age! Genius is ageless ( - $10M)
(1:01) Awesome Slo-Mo on the Knoxville bull stunt! ( + $10M)
(1:06) Cool toilet geyser, but maybe cool it with the Slo-Mo? ( - $3M)
(1:15) Bad Grandpa is a certified Box Office draw ( + $10M)
(1:20) STOP REMINDING THE AUDIENCE OF THEIR MORTALITY!!! ( - $15M)
(1:25) What, did you win a contest or something? ( - $10M)
(1:26) Nut shot! And no Slo-Mo ( +$5M)
(1:29) I spoke too soon ( - $5M)
(1:36) Eric Andre! The true heir apparent to Jackass ( + $10M)
(1:40) “Hello, Mom? Sorry to wake you but I was watching the Jackass Forever trailer AND I JUST SAW THE WOMAN OF MY DREAMS!!! ( + $10M)
(1:45) Ok, here we go again ( + $5M)
(1:59) Timothy Treadwell did it first ( - $5M)
In Summation
The trailer’s fixation on the advanced age of the original Jackass crew was off putting. Yes, there’s novelty to older men doing dumb and dangerous stunts, but the trailer makers are forgetting that these guys are a unique and original breed of reckless idiot that can out stupid anyone at any age. They shouldn’t be playing second fiddle to a guy named Poopies. We’ll have to see if subsequent trailers can find the right balance between celebrating the original crew’s talents and selling the audience on the new additions to the cast. This first trailer missed that mark.
Our Predicted Domestic Opening = $17 Million