The Case For F9 Running Out Of Gas On Opening Weekend
Five reasons why the latest entry in The Fast franchise will have the lowest opening since 2006's Tokyo Drift.
Yesterday, Pat thoughtfully laid out his fast five reasons why F9 will do Baffa Bobo on June 25th. Now I, Clayton, will give you my furious five reasons why F9’s tank will be emptier than expected this weekend.
Lack of Star Power: Jason Statham. The Rock. Paul Walker (R.I.P.). All of these stars will be missing from F9. Now Walker’s absence is tragic and unavoidable, but The Rock and Statham’s is due to on-set and behind the scenes squabbling that could have easily been pushed aside for the good of the franchise. Instead, we had a spin-off film, Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw, that siphoned off stars, excitement and cold hard cash from the main franchise. H&S opened to $60 Million in early August of 2019 and legged out to $173.9 Domestic. I wouldn’t be surprised if F9 fails to hit BOTH those targets. The fact of the matter is, Vin Diesel’s ego has worked against him by driving away two huge Box Office draws, and the franchise will suffer financially for it. Oh, and for those who say Fate of the Furious did perfectly fine without Walker, I counter that the “What will they do to replace Brian?” question drove audiences to find out how the franchise could possibly follow the heartrending final minutes of F7. And the problem is, his “replacement” Scott Eastwood isn’t putting butts in the seats. I love John Cena, but his addition feels like a shrug. As of now, there are too many holes at the heart of La Familia.
Dominic Torrent-o: Instead of waiting to release F9 in America and foreign markets all at once, Universal chose to release the film in China and a few other countries on May 21st. That means there are several high quality bootlegs available online. I’m not saying this will be an Expendables 3 situation, but anytime you make people wait for something they want, it can lead to finding less than legal ways of acquiring it.
Justice For Huh?: Yes, we all love Han. When the first trailer for F9 dropped in January 2020, the reveal that people would finally get #JusticeForHan had everyone excited. Now, a year on, people feel like justice has already been served. “Didn’t he come back in the last movie?” The delays have killed the momentum on this hashtag, and justice for a fictional character is not high on the list of priorities for Twitter users.
Can Nitrous Expire?: That question may be up for debate, but what does have an expiration date is BUZZ. Like I said in Reason #3, the first trailer for F9 came out in January 2020. This movie can’t help but feel like old news. I previously believed that a year delay would create more BUZZ, but it has definitely dissipated. There also seems to be a fatigue surrounding the F&F franchise in general. It’s on its NINTH film in 20 years. No film series has stayed as successful and as relevant for as long as F&F, but Murphy’s Law says a drop off is bound to happen. I think it happens with F9.
Waiting For Widow: As much as life is getting back to normal, many moviegoers— especially casual moviegoers— have yet to make going to the theater a habit again. A person’s first movie back is a BIG DEAL. Now, I’m not saying F9 isn’t special, but Black Widow might be more special. Black Widow was ranked 1st on Fandango’s 2021 Most Anticipated Summer Movie Poll. F9 ranked 3rd. F9 is still anticipated for sure, but Marvel hasn’t released a film in theaters since Spider-Man: Far From Home ($92.5M Opening/ $390.5M Domestic Total) swung into multiplexes on July 2, 2019. That’s 2 years! Now, anyone who listens to the B.O. Boys Podcast knows I’m low on Marvel. I think their next couple films— Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings and Eternals— seem like thin soup. For a long time, I was similarly down on the prospects for Black Widow. It’s a long delayed prequel about a character that is canonically dead — as of now. I thought the success of Wandavision, The Falcon And The Winter Soldier and Loki on Disney+ made cinema quality Marvel films less of a novelty. But I don’t think that anymore. Even with Black Widow being available on Disney + Premier Access day-and-date, I think it will be a lot of moviegoers first film back. Over the last 13 years, moviegoers have had it drilled into their heads that Marvel Movies are EVENTS. For many casual movie fans, Marvel films are the only ones they’ll go to the theaters to see, and movies need casual fans — people who go to the theater twice a year — to become massive hits. I think seeing a Marvel movie as a first step back to normalcy will be a comfort that few theater patrons will pass up.
It pains me to say this, but I think F9 makes significantly less than $75 Million this coming weekend, and will come in under the $70.9 Million Fast & Furious opened to in August 2009. That means F9 will have the lowest opening weekend of an F&F film since The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift opened to $23.9 Million in 2006. This franchise’s demise did not happen fast, but it will have Universal furious(ly) looking for answers.