The Case for F9 Making Baffa Bobo on Opening Weekend
Five reasons why the new Fast and Furious sequel will do more than fine at the Box Office this weekend
We’re approaching June 25 on on the calendar which means box office fans should rev up their engines, check their oil, install their hydraulics, roll down their windows, check the rear view, grab the steering wheel, slam their foot on the pedal, go easy on the brakes, and buy a ticket on Fandango, because F9: The Fast Saga (aka Fast And Furious 9) finally crashes into U.S. theaters.
Originally set to open in April 2020 and delayed thanks to the pandemic (COVID-19), F9 is of course the latest in one of the most storied franchises in box office history. Only one film in the series— Part 3, aka Tokyo Drift— could be considered anything less than an outright blockbuster, and every entry starting with 2011’s Fast Five has opened to domestic 3-days of $86 million or higher, peaking with the downright baffa $147 million of 2015’s Furious 7. So a gigantic opening weekend for F9 should be a slam doink, right? It’s as routine as dogs chasing a mailman or a British lady taking crumpets with her tea— except, according to some doomsayers, that’s not the case. There are those who say that the franchise ran out of steam with the 8th entry The Fate of The Furious ($98 mil opening weekend, $225 domestic total), that they’ll be dinged by the loss of The Rock from the cast, that John Cena’s China controversies will turn off fans, or that there’s just nothing BUZZworthy about this one. Box Office Pro is currently projecting a $50-$70 mil opening weekend for F9, which would put it on the low-end of the franchise.
Are they correct? Well even amongst The B.O. Boys, there’s a split. So today I, Pat, will make a case for why the doomsayers are WRONG and that the bobo will indeed be baffa this weekend for Vin Diesel, Michelle Rodriguez, Tyrese, and the rest of La Familia. I’m predicting an OVER $75 million domestic opening, and here are are a fast Five Reasons Why.
The Numbers Trend Up: Let’s start with the numbers. Fast installments 4-7 kept trending up, up, UP. Fast & Furious opened to $70 mil, topped by Fast Five’s $86 mil, topped again by Fast and Furious 6’s $97 mil, which was then blown away by Furious 7’s $147 mil peak. Then there was a huge dip to “only” $98 mil opening by Fate of The Furious, which is the doomsayers’ cause for alarm. But should it be? Of course not. Fate was always going to be an outlier, with a huge increase in general interest caused by the death by co-star Paul Walker. Short of (God forbid) Vin Diesel perishing before a movie’s release, there’s nothing else that could ever draw that much mainstream interest and emotion to another Fast movie. So the dip for Part 8 shouldn’t really be looked at as some kind of downward trajectory for the series, but instead a more natural continuation of its overall upward trajectory. Simply put, these movies have been continuously building on their previous domestic opening weekends since 2009, and therefore the numbers make the case that $90+ million is still where we should expect this one to fall.
Vin is the star of these movies, not The Rock: Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson is absolutely a historic movie star, and arguably (aside from Leo, Joker, or an unretired Jack Nicholson) the biggest movie star on the planet. He also undoubtedly added a nitrous boost to the series by joining the cast in 2011’s Fast Five, which he timed perfectly with his return to pro wrestling and winning back his male, juicehead fanbase. As for Vin Diesel, while his non-Fast movies have had some solid results overseas, there’s no argument to make that he’s anywhere near the star level of The Rock. If you made two versions of a “big hulking monstrosity fights terrorists on an exploding helicopter and makes quips” script— one starring The Rock, and one starring Vin Diesel— the version with The Rock absolutely gross 5x the amount of the Diesel version at the domestic B.O. But when it comes to the Fast movies, Vin is the biggest movie star alive. To the fans of this series he’s Joker, Jack, Leo, and Meryl Streep (in her 2000s comedy run) all rolled into one. You put Vin at the head of the table drinking Coronas and the guy might as well be 1994 Jim Carrey. (Yup, the Ace/Mask/Dumber year.) Losing The Rock of course hurts, and in a normal franchise it’s an absolute killer. (Try making the next Jumanji movie with just Jack Black, Kevin Hart, Karen Gillan and Devito, I dare you.) But for F9, it won’t have a huge effect because Vin is all the star power you need.
#JusticeForHan: Has buzz for the return of beloved character Han (who “died” in Tokyo Drift, but appeared in films 4-6 which yes, were PREQUELS) dampened at all during the pandemic year? Nope. We may have turned our attention to other matters, such as pandemics, elections, vaccines etc, but in the end Han is back and for the fans of this series that’s the most important issue of the day.
They’re Going To Space: As the car-based stunts ramp up from sequel to sequel— where a franchise that started around a ring of street racers and car thieves and has progressed to battling nuclear warheads in the Arctic— many have theorized that eventually La Familia would be driving cars in space. For those who’ve seen the F9 trailer, it’s clear that in this film it’s either happening or getting very close. And while others might point to films such as Leprechaun 4: In Space and say that sequels in space are a sign of desperation and failure, I’ll point to none other than JAMES BOND and the 1979 entry Moonraker as an example of space being the place to rack up those domestic dollars. The film followed Roger Moore’s 007 to outer space and racked up $210 million worldwide, which was the biggest grossing Bond film up that that point (yup, bigger than any Earth-bound Connery entry) and the biggest Bond all the way until 1995’s Goldeneye. Sure, audience smell desperation when you send C-level properties like Leprechaun or Hellraiser or Abbott & Costello or the Critters to space. But when you promise them that an A-level icon like James Bond or Dom Toretto might put on a space suit? It’s nothing less than a small step for man, a giant leap for that man’s box office kitty.
This Is The One They’ve Been Waiting For: We’ve had hit movies during the theatrical box office recovery. Godzilla vs Kong just crossed the $100 mil domestic mark, A Quiet Place 2 is at $125, and Cruella currently sits at almost $65 mil (with possibly $30-$40 mil more in PVOD sales). But clearly F9 remains THE ONE. It’s the movie with the longest history, the most passionate fans, the most iconic characters, and the most emotional attachment. Perhaps moreso than Marvel and Star Wars, this is the movie franchise that moviegoers truly LOVE. Go to an opening weekend screening of a Fast movie and ask someone if Dom is their brother, and chances are that person will look to crack you in the fucking skull with a lead pipe for even asking such a dumb question because OF COURSE DOM IS MY BROTHER. So while other movies have been hits the last few months as moviegoers get vaxxed and waxxed and trickle back to theaters, chances are there are many people who have been waiting for F9 to make their return. These fans— comprised of Coastal Elites, Earthdogs, Stacks Dwellers and Plainbillies— want the emotional experience of Dom and Letty being the people who welcome them back to theaters. These moviegoers may like the Sound Ghouls of A Quiet Place, they may respect Kong, but they LOVE their Fast family. And it’s this (gigantic) hardcore audience that will make their glorious return on June 25, and push F9 over the vaunted $75 mil domestic mark.