Preview for the Weekend of Friday, February 23, 2024
Four new releases will hit the screens, but can any of them challenge the dominance of Bob Marley: One Love for the weekend crown?
Ordinary Angles
Two-time Academy Award winner Hilary Swank leads this true story, aiming to allure moviegoers seeking a feel-good film with plenty of heart. It is directed by Joe Gunn, known for his faith-based films such as Like Dandelion Dust, Do You Believe?, and The Case for Christ, with Alan Ritchson from the hit television show Reacher co-starring.
Between The Chosen installments achieving respectable box office numbers just recently, and Jesus Revolution being a break-out hit last February, grossing $52.1 million domestically, there is a clear audience for these types of faith-inspired films. The question is whether this will open closer to Revolution at $15.8 million, or the recent Chosen films around $5-6 million. The presence of Swank does offer appeal, but the question is how much? I tend to regard her more as an acclaimed actress than a box office draw, although she has experienced success in the past as the lead in Million Dollar Baby ($100.4 million), P.S. I Love You ($53.4 million), and Freedom Writers ($36.6 million). However, those films were released 15-20 years ago, and Swank has since transitioned to more supporting and leading roles in direct-to-streaming films.
The film's premise serves as its main selling point, and I anticipate a decent turnout this weekend. While this comparison represents the upper end of tracking, it is worth noting that in April 2019, Breakthrough opened to $11.2 million. Thanks to positive word of mouth and an A CinemaScore, it went on to earn $40.6 million domestically.
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba - To the Hashira Training
The Demon Slayer films have enjoyed significant success at the domestic box office. Opening in April 2021, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba - The Movie: Mugen Train stormed out of the gate with a $21.2 million opening and demonstrated impressive staying power, especially considering its niche audience, ultimately reaching $49.5 million. Last February, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba - To the Swordsmith Village opened respectably with $10.1 million, but subsequent weekday and weekend grosses were not reported. While it is unrealistic to expect numbers comparable to Mugen Train, given the boost it recieved from the franchise's debut in the US, a figure closer to Swordsmith seems probable at this time.
Drive-Away Dolls
Ethan Coen takes the helm of this dark comedy solo, marking a departure from his usual collaboration with his brother Joel. The Coen brothers have helmed numerous iconic productions such as No Country for Old Men, The Big Lebowski, Fargo, and True Grit. Following 2021's The Tragedy of Macbeth, which featured Denzel Washington and Frances McDormand and was directed by Joel, it now seems to be Ethan's turn to embark on a similar independent journey. Ethan has already won the box office race as Macbeth premiered exclusively on Apple TV, but can he match or exceed his brother's success on the quality scale?
Despite some audience members downplaying Macbeth for not bringing anything new to the plethora of Shakespeare adaptations over the years, critics praised the film, and it received numerous Academy Award nominations. Now, all eyes are on Ethan as he hopes to uphold his legacy of cinematic excellence, now independently.
As usual with a Coen brothers production, a talented cast is assembled here given the likes of Margaret Qualley and Geraldine Viswanathan as the leads, followed by Coleman Domingo, Matt Damon, Pedro Pascal, and Miley Cyrus co-starring. Originally slated for a September 22, 2023 release date, this was pushed back due to the SAG-AFTRA strike so the likable cast could help promote the film.
But despite these intentions, the release of this film feels very under the radar with minimal publicity. As a fan of the Coen brothers and the talented cast, I am rooting for Drive-Away Dolls to succeed this weekend, but my hopes are currently subdued. The delay also raises some concerns as it may indicate Focus Feature’s skepticism, missing out on a potential awards run in 2023 and instead being released on a random weekend in February.
Tenet IMAX Re-Release
It seems as if Christopher Nolan squandered his beef with Warner Brothers as they are reuniting this weekend for a re-release for one of Nolan’s modecisive films. Theaters will show Tenet on 70 mm IMAX, IMAX, digital 70mm screens in an effort to promote Dune: Part Two by showing exclusive footage of this film.
Christopher Nolan recently indicated in a statement, “Seeing the way audiences responded to our large format presentations of Oppenheimer, I’m thrilled that Warner Bros. is giving audiences a chance to see Tenet the way it was intended to be seen, on the largest IMAX and large format film screens, and I’m honored to have our movie warm up the film projectors for Denis Villenueve’s jaw-dropping Dune: Part Two.”
A comparison lies in the IMAX re-release of Dune, coinciding with the buildup for Dune: Part Two. Despite opening in 2,100 locations, its domestic performance was lackluster, grossing only $570,000 ($271 per location). However, a recent article revealed that the re-release garnered $30 million worldwide since its release date on February 9. This comparison holds value, especially when considering the long term availability of Tenet on Max and PVOD. Dune, however, benefited from the anticipation surrounding its sequel, a factor absent in Tenet's case.
This Weekend’s Forecast
Bob Marley: One Love - $14 million (-51%)
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba - To the Hashira Training - $11 million (New)
Ordinary Angels - $8 million (New)
Madame Web - $5 million (-67%)
Drive-Away Dolls - $3.2 million (New)
Argylle - $3 million (-38%)
Migration - $2.9 million (-24%)
Wonka - $2.5 million (-29%)
The Beekeeper - $2.1 million (-35%)
Anyone But You - $1.7 million (-30%)