Preview for the Weekend of Friday, March 8, 2024
Kung Fu Panda 4 offers something for the kid-friendly crowd that has been starved for new content, but can it seize the crown from Dune: Part Two?
Kung Fu Panda 4
Featuring recurring actors such as Jack Black, Dustin Hoffman, Bryan Cranston, and Ian McShane, alongside newcomers Awkwafina, Viola Davis, Ke Huy Quan, and James Wong, this new installment aims to draw in fans of the previous films as well as those seeking some kid-friendly fun. Jack Black, especially, is now a bigger draw, having experienced a career resurgence following delightful turns in the Jumanji films and The Super Mario Bros.
However, a potential downside is the absence of The Furious Five. This ensemble, portrayed by Angelina Jolie, Jackie Chan, Seth Rogen, David Cross, and Lucy Liu, always provided a great additional element alongside Po, offering meaningful discussions and exciting action sequences. Director Mike Mitchell has conveyed that these characters will make brief cameo appearances, but Poe's new sidekick this time around will be Zhen, portrayed by Awkwafina.
Among recent hits like Shang-Chi, Jumanji: The Next Level, Crazy Rich Asians, and The Little Mermaid, Awkwafina has emerged as one of Hollywood’s leading supporting character in blockbuster films. Some moviegoers found her portrayal rather grating as the talking bird in last year’s The Little Mermaid, so hopefully, a similar trend will not persist this time around. A Kung Fu Panda film without Poe and The Furious Five teamed up feels somewhat incomplete, but this installment looks to offer enough enjoyable elements to divert beloved fans from this absence.
Younger audiences and families have are also likely desperate for new content. Like Sing 2 during early 2022, Migration has maintained commendable legs by quietly achieving a 10x multiplier from its $12.4 million opening, and looks poised to finish at over $300 million worldwide. But the Migration reign needs to end after nearly three months. Kung Fu Panda 4 will benefit from this factor, but I must say, the upcoming weekends do offer some titles that will overlap with its demographic, given the likes of Arthur The King, Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, and Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire, which could slightly hinder its longevity.
Considering the performance of previous Kung Fu Panda installments, it is reasonable to anticipate numbers most comparable to Kung Fu Panda 3, which opened to $41.2 million before grossing $143.5 million domestically and $521.1 million worldwide. EmpireCity Box Office indicated last weekend that a $50 million debut could be in store, but this source is known to highball after suggesting a $180 million debut for Barbie and $50 million for Wonka.
Additionally, a crucial factor to note is the influence of the Chinese market. The third film grossed more there than it did domestically, with a staggering $154.3 million. But this outcome is unlikely to occur once again given the state of diminishing returns for Hollywood productions in China. Post-pandemic, the highest-grossing animated film in China is The Bad Guys, which earned $49.5 million.
Another factor is nostalgia. Opening eight years after the third film, will it be present, and does the brief return of Ian McShane’s villainous Tai Lung mean anything to fans? Right now, I am hesitant to think so, but an alternative narrative could arise once the weekend gets closer. Lastly, I would like to touch on the marketing. Universal has released one trailer on December 13 and not much else. The marketing has depicted lots of colorful fun, but it opted to convey lots childish humor with some potty jokes and the animation looked like a slight step down from the previous installments.
Nonetheless, anticipate a respectable turnout this weekend that falls short of the first two films, but lands closer to Kung Fu Panda 3.
Imaginary
Blumhouse Productions returns to the spotlight this weekend, aiming to allure horror fans with their latest offering that offers an obscure premise about a deranged teddy bear. Similar to audiences seeking kid-friendly releases, the horror film market has been rather bleak recently. Night Swim, the most recent addition, grossed $32.2 million domestically and $51.8 million worldwide following its release on January 3, 2024. Directed by Jeff Wadlow, known for his work on Truth or Dare, Fantasy Island, and Kick-Ass 2, we should not expect this to be a high-quality horror film.
But with a production budget of $13 million, this film should have no issues achieving profitability, irrespective of its quality. A pertinent comparison is Fantasy Island, which opened in February 2020 with $12.3 million but had limited staying power, culminating at $27.3 million domestically and $49.4 million worldwide.
Cabrini
Angel Studios is hoping to break out of their rut after After Death and The Shift went largely unnoticed at the box office. Cabrini tells the story of the Italian immigrant Francesca Cabrini and boasts a cast including Christiana Dell’Anna, Virginia Bocelli, Romana Maggiora, David Morse, and John Lithgow. The reviews are also stellar, with a current 96% on Rotten Tomatoes from 24 reviews.
Only a few weeks ago, I had no indication that this film existed. But recently, there has been a lot of positive buzz surrounding it as an underdog film that successfully honors the little-known efforts of Cabrini and her profound impact on society.
This film aims to incorporate various aspects of faith, and despite the crowded genre at the box office with films like Ordinary Angels and episodes of The Chosen, I believe there is enough goodwill surrounding this film for it to stand out and attract a sizable crowd this weekend.
The Second Weekend For Dune: Part Two
With a strong fan base and positive word-of-mouth, the film is destined to experience continued success at the box office. Early reports suggest a total of around $7.3 million for its Monday gross, marking a 66.2% drop from its $21.5 million on Sunday. Oppenheimer experienced a 45.4% decline, earning $12.6 million, but this comparison is not fair due to the advantage that summer weekdays provide.
The 68.3% drop is comparable to The Batman from two years ago, which maintained steady legs for a superhero film due to critical praise and strong audience reception. The Batman experienced a 50.4% dip during its second weekend, which is similar to what I anticipate for Dune.
This Weekend’s Forecast
Dune: Part Two - $41.5 million (-49%)
Kung Fu Panda 4 - $38 million (New)
Imaginary - $11 million (New)
Cabrini - $8 million (New)
Bob Marley: One Love - $4.5 million (-40%)
Ordinary Angels - $2.4 million (-37%)
Madame Web - $1.6 million (-47%)
The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 7-8 - $1.5 million (-53%)
Migration - $1.2 million (-52%)
Wonka - $775k (-55%)
I honestly think Kung Fun Panda with the rats starving for fresh cheese, would take the #1 spot with Dune 2 having a amazing drop same time, but it will be super close for sure as we see sales and numbers going to this weekend!
Personally, I believe Kung Fu Panda 4 could benefit from the nostalgia boost in the same way that Minions: The Rise of Gru did back in 2022. Obviously, Minions and Despicable Me are a bigger franchise, but it could get a boost from people who grew up watching the first few movies when they were younger and then go see this new one that also brings back past characters from the other Kung Fu Panda movies.
Though Universal started for the marketing campaign for this one surprisingly late (they should've put the first trailer out last November before Trolls Band Together), I still think awareness is great amongst the target audience. $50M sounds a bit too high, but a gross between $40M-$45M seems doable. Though anything less will make for an interesting battle between The Dragon Warrior and The Lisan al Gaib.
Also, at least on Friday (International Woman's Day), pre-sales for Cabrini have been very strong. In my area, plenty of seats have been taken and large groups of people have also been buying tickets. That does signal a frontloaded run, but I wouldn't be surprised if Cabrini does make more than $10M or even potentially beat out Imaginary for #3.