Preview for the Weekend of Friday, March 29, 2024
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire is poised for a strong debut, but how will it stack up against other entries in The MonsterVerse?
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire
Just when all hope seemed lost for the Monsterverse following the underwhelming performance of Godzilla: King of the Monsters in 2019, Godzilla vs. Kong rejuvenated theaters during the pandemic in April 2021. It grossed a hearty $100.9 million domestically and $470.1 million worldwide, fueled by a mighty $188.7 million in China. Given the moviegoing landscape, these numbers were impressive, especially considering the day-and-date release on HBO Max. Similar to Dune: Part Two, can we expect an increase, and if so, how much will it build off the first installment’s grosses?
On the high end, I lean towards the possibility of a Dune: Part Two scenario, possibly doubling the $31.6 million 3-Day weekend of Godzilla vs. Kong. This would position it similarly to Kong: Skull Island, which earned $61 million seven years ago. However, a more realistic expectation, aligning with recent projections, suggests a jump of around 1.75 times, bringing it to the range of $50-55 million.
Also encouraging are the presales. As of March 24, sources indicate that this should earn around $7 million from Thursday previews, marking a rock-solid start for a film requiring a strong opening due to anticipated diminishing sales on Sunday, attributed to Easter Sunday. Unlike other big-budget blockbuster franchises, interest in this series remains in China. On its first day of presales, The New Empire generated $915k, just shy of Fast X at $988k and Jurassic World: Dominion at $989k. If this trajectory continues, the film has the potential to surpass $100 million, an impressive feat considering China’s recent skepticism towards Hollywood productions.
Godzilla vs. Kong was not a masterpiece, but it delivered entertaining fun that audiences truly embraced in theaters and on streaming platforms. Judging from the trailers and reactions from recent screenings, The New Empire appears to capture a similar feel that audiences will hopefully enjoy once again. What sparks my curiosity is whether Godzilla Minus One will have a positive or negative impact. On the upside, Minus One has the potential to generate excitement and anticipation around Godzilla's character by drawing audiences back to the big screen. However, on the downside, Minus One was close to being a masterpiece that offered rich storytelling and complex characters, in addition to being a Godzilla film. The New Empire seems to embrace the cheesy fun that Minus One lacked, so the question arises: will this shift in tone deter audiences who recently appreciated the depth of Minus One's narrative?
This Weekend’s Forecast:
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire - $56 million (New)
Ghostbusters: The Frozen Empire - $18.5 million (-59%)
Dune: Part Two - $11 million (-37%)
Kung Fu Panda 4 - $10 million (-40%)
Immaculate - $2.6 million (-50%)
Totally loved everything you mentioned that you and I can agree on!
1. People that enjoyed a plotless, but giant slam doink monster action film like GvK, wouldn’t mind seeing another film like this.
2.Critics arent gonna matter huh? Because general audiences going to a monster film that has the things above will absolutely blow their minds away!
3.Minus One well told a very good godzilla film but GxK for real was never expected to be good as Minus One for reasons that they are two different type of films! Oscar buzz for Minus One does lead very well buzz for this GxK for sure! But all in all it be super retarded if anyone compares it to Minus One which would be too ridiculous to say the least!
My opening weekend prediction will be $59 to be on the safe side!
Btw emailed you a a GOATY photoshop of you and wanna b.o senior intern christopher being the new empire of the b.o boys hope you liked;)
I'm gonna be particularly bullish on this one. I'd say it hits $60M and could possibly even go a bit higher than that. Though I get the $50M projections, this one has a lot of things going for it that could propel it to a very good opening. Personally, the main one is simply due to the fact that it's in a very similar situation to Dune: Part Two. More than just being sequels to a predecessor that was relased in theaters and on streaming the same day, it's the kind of spectactle they offer.
Though for completely different reasons, the Dune movies and even the Monsterverse films (particularly Godzilla vs. Kong), offered the kind of cinema spectacle that you can't really find elsewhere. For audiences, seeing giant monsters beating the crap out of each other in a theater is very appealing and from the trailers of Godzilla x Kong, they're offering the kind of spectacle that is made for theaters (especially IMAX). I'm noticing a very strong turnout in pre-sales in my area for IMAX theaters and other PLF formats. Definietly not on the same level as Dune: Part Two, but there's still a lot of demand to see this on the biggest screens possible.
That I think will contribute to a great turnout for this sequel. Not to mention that most people generally liked GvK and I'm sure there's a lot of people who saw that film on HBO Max that are now going to see this one in theaters with no Covid-19 restrictions or fears in place. Also, (according to Deadline) the budget for this one is significantly less than Godzilla vs. Kong at $135M. So, it can do around $470M worldwide and still be another solid hit for Warner Bros., Legendary, and the MonsterVerse franchise as a whole (even if it probably won't do the near $190M gross that GvK did in China).
I wasn't really bullish on this one for a while, but the signs are showing that Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire might just have a solid run in theaters. If everything goes well, it'll give another great boost to the box office and cap off a great March with four movies bringing in tons of people out to the cinema.