Preview for the Weekend of Friday, March 15, 2024
Arthur The King and Love Lies Bleeding are set to release, but can they challenge Kung Fu Panda 4 and Dune: Part Two for the throne?
Arthur The King
Directed by Simon Cellan Jones and starring Mark Wahlberg, Simu Liu, Nathalie Emmanuel, Bear Grylls, and Juliet Rylance, this film aims to attract families seeking some feel-good fun this weekend. A good comparison here is Dog, which was released in February 2022 and marked Channing Tatum’s return to Hollywood after a four-year hiatus. Receiving positive reviews and strong word of mouth, Dog opened to $14.8 million but became somewhat of a sleeper hit, finishing at $61.7 million domestically and $84.7 million worldwide.
The high-spirited premise will certainly be enticing for audiences, but another factor to consider is Mark Wahlberg's star power. About 10-15 years ago, Wahlberg was one of Hollywood’s biggest stars, with hits like Ted, The Other Guys, Transformers: Age of Extinction, Daddy’s Home, and Lone Survivor, among others. However, more recently, he has been featured in streaming films. His latest theatrical release was Father Stu, which grossed $21 million domestically in April 2022. While this total may seem low, with a production budget of $4 million, it was a profitable film that also performed well on Netflix. Wahlberg may not be at his peak, but his name alone still has the ability to draw a crowd.
Also competing for this film’s audience will be Kung Fu Panda 4. Due to the scarcity of kid-friendly releases, audiences rushed to see this film last weekend, where it opened to $57.9 million. Despite the overlap in targeted demographics, I believe that both films should have the ability to coexist without interfering with one another. Expect a respectable debut this weekend, placing this film in the range of Dog with healthy legs ahead.
Love Lies Bleeding
After achieving a respectable gross of $167,463 last weekend in five locations (with a $33,492 average), it will be interesting to monitor how Love Lies Bleeding performs when going wide this weekend. The film also features a talented cast including Kristen Stewart, Katy M. O’Brien, Jena Malone, Ed Harris, and Dave Franco. Working in its favor will be positive word of mouth. The film has been treated to stellar word of mouth, as the Rotten Tomatoes score currently stands at 91% with 100 reviews.
Looking at comparisons, I see a path where this plays out similarly to another A24 production: Bodies, Bodies, Bodies. During its limited release, this film grossed $266,653 million in six locations (with a $37,775 average). Upon its second weekend expansion into 1,290 locations, it grossed $3.1 million, and expanded to 2,541 locations the following weekend but proceeded to gross $2.3 million. A more conservative comparison is Saltburn which opened to $322,651 in seven locations (with a $46,093 average) before expanding into 1,566 and grossing $1.8 million during the 3-Day weekend. But anticipate an opening weekend closer to that of Bodies, with the potential to surpass it.
Kung Fu Panda 4 and Dune: Part Two
After both films garnered robust numbers last weekend, anticipate healthy grosses this weekend.
In their second weekends, the previous Kung Fu Panda films experienced drops of 44.2%, 49.9%, and 48.5%, respectively. The release of Arthur The King may hinder the fourth installment from maintaining the same level as its predecessors, but expect a dip in the range of 50-55 %. Additionally, How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World was released late February of 2019 and experienced a 45.4% during its second weekend.
Last weekend, Dune grossed $46.2 million, marking a 44% decrease from its $82.5 million opening. Looking ahead, it appears poised to slightly outperform Kung Fu Panda 4 and reclaim the crown. Its 44% drop mirrors that of Oppenheimer, which, in its third weekend, experienced a 37.6% decrease and grossed $29.1 million. Oppenheimer holds an advantage due to the strong weekday numbers given its summer release, yet both films have shown a comparable performance over the weekends. Expect this trend to persist, positioning Dune to earn between $29-30 million this weekend.
This Weekend’s Forecast:
Dune: Part Two - $30 million (-35%)
Kung Fu Panda 4 - $28 million (-51%)
Arthur The King - $13 million (New)
Cabrini - $4.2 million (-41%)
Imaginary - $4 million (-59%)
Love Lies Bleeding - $3.2 million (New)
Bob Marley: One Love - $2.5 million (-37%)
Ordinary Angels - $1.2 million (-36%)
Migration - $700k (-33%)
Madame Web - $550k (-50%)
Won't be as interesting a weekend compared to the last two, but I hope that Arthur the King can hit double digits and that Love Lies Bleeding (gonna try to catch that one this weekend) has a good expansion. Though with the lack of a big wide release this weekend, A24 probably should've made the expansion to wide release even bigger. Like put it in over 2,000 theaters or something.
Also, while the race for #1 this weekend will be close, I think Kung Fu Panda 4 will prevail just a little bit more than Dune: Part Two. Audiences are enjoying it and there's not much to stop it from having a hold that's less than 50%. Arthur the King wll probably affect it a bit, but that film probably won't have the diverse turnout that Kung Fu Panda 4 did. Arthur the King is the kind of the family film that would appeal most to Middle America and those who see these kinds of inspirational dramas in theaters. Not necessarily a bad thing, but something to keep it mind when you're dealing with these kinds of films.