Preview for the Weekend of Friday, March 1, 2024
The tables are poised to turn at the box office with the release of Dune: Part Two, but how significant will its turnout be?
Dune: Part Two
Ladies and gentlemen, after weeks of smaller-scale and underperforming new releases, our first big blockbuster of 2024 has arrived. While the first Dune was not a blow-out hit, considering the simultaneous release on HBO Max and the challenges posed by the COVID pandemic, its respective grosses of $108.8 million domestically and $402 million worldwide were undoubtably commendable. With the goodwill garnered from the first installment and the cliffhanger ending, along with new additions to its already massive and highly talented cast, a significant box office boost is assured.
Some comparisons have been made between Dune: Part Two's box office potential and that of Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse. Spider-Verse expanded on its predecessor’s opening by roughly 3.4 times, indicating that Dune might achieve an opening weekend of around $140 million. However, a more reasonable estimate, similar to a 2x increase seen in the first two John Wick installments, seems likely, placing Part Two in the range of $85 million this weekend, comparable to Oppenheimer.
Like Oppenheimer, Part Two benefits from a wealth of goodwill, a cast featuring many popular faces to promote the film to their fans, and a strong demand for IMAX screenings. Many critics have indicated the necessity to see this “on the largest screen possible.” This demand has been noticeable in most of our majors cities with many showings already sold out for this weekend. A similar pattern was apparent for Avatar: The Way of Water and Oppenhemier that created a massive backlog and enabled a long-lasting run at the box office. What this implies is that if Part Two falls short or on the lower end of expectations this weekend, do not fret. Audiences could simply be waiting to see this on the biggest and best screens possible once all the excitement dies down and IMAX screens become available.
What is also encouraging is Denis Villeneuve's indication that this will be an epic war movie moving at a faster pace than the first film. The anticipated romance between Paul Atreides (Chalamet) and Chani (Zendaya) looks appealing and is something that audiences will surely latch onto. Back in 2021, the general consensus among my friends and I was that Dune was a "beautiful bore with a great cast." Despite my mixed impressions, Part Two seems poised to build off the fun and exciting elements that the first installment offered.
Finally, the cast. Among our newer generation of stars, nearly all of our most popular and likable ones are featured, including Timothée Chalamet, Zendaya, Florence Pugh, Austin Butler, and Anya Taylor-Joy. The lineup is incredibly impressive, particularly considering the film's budget is “only” $190 million, and I am intrigued by the level of appeal that they can generate. Chalamet, in particular, is still riding high on the breakout success of Wonka, which grossed over $600 million worldwide.
As of February 24, early presale trackings have indicated $12.1 million from Thursday previews and $2 million in early access screenings. This $12.1 million figure would be an impressive sum, lightyears ahead of the initial film's $5.1 million before finishing the weekend at $41 million, and slightly surpassing Oppenheimer at $10.5 million. And expect steady sales over the duration of this weekend because people there will be positive word of mouth as critics have hailed Part Two as one of the greatest sci-fi films ever made, and the current Rotten Tomatoes score stands at 97%. It was a wise move by Warner Brothers to lift the embargo and release reviews a few weeks in advance, demonstrating their confidence in the product and earning my appreciation for taking this chance.
Due to the absence of recent major releases at the box office, I believe there is an outside chance that Part Two reaches nine figures domestically this weekend. However, the pre-sales and tracking have not indicated these levels quite yet, so I will err on the side of caution and predict that this falls slightly short. Outside from Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3 last May, there have been few science fiction films to release post pandemic and succeed theatrically. But Part Two should defy this trend by opening admirably and ahead Oppenheimer, with long legs throughout March and into April.
The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 7-8
The release of The Chosen episodes might slip under the radar for some, but its devoted fanbase consistently demonstrates their support in theaters. Episodes 1-4, premiered on Thursday, February 1, garnered an impressive $5.9 million over the weekend and $1.4 million on opening day. Two weeks later, Episodes 4-6 brought in $3.6 million and $700k on its first day. While a downward trajectory is evident, these earnings remain significant for theaters. Additionally, Fathom Events is essentially double-dipping with their profits as these episodes transition to streaming just two weeks later. This presents a compelling model that more streaming platforms need to consider replicating moving forward.
This Weekend’s Forecast:
Dune: Part Two - $89 million (New)
Bob Marley: One Love - $7.5 million (-45%)
Ordinary Angels - $4 million (-35%)
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba - To the Hashira Training - $3.5 million (-70%)
The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 7-8 - $3.3 million (New)
Madame Web - $2.7 million (-54%)
Migration - $2.2 million (-27%)
Wonka - $1.7 million (-32%)
Argylle - $1.5 million (-46%)
Drive-Away Dolls - $1.2 million (-50%)
Without spoiling anything, I caught the film at the IMAX Fan Event Screening and it was quite amazing. Already a contender for one of the best movies of the year and one of the most visually gorgeous sci-fi films or just films in general that I've ever seen.
Going off my audience and their reaction to the movie, I could tell they enjoyed the heck out of it (including a nice applause at the end). That points towards Dune: Part Two going well with not only critics and fans, but general audiences which is as important if not more so.
Like you, I'm not ready to say it's automatically gonna hit $100M domestically on it's opening weekend, but the chances are definitely not impossible at this point. I hope it does, but I'm sure Warner Bros. and Legendary will be just fine with $80M-$90M. Even then, that's still insanely impressive for a sci-fi sequel with a budget just under $200M.
Anyways, here's hoping Dune: Part Two does big blockbuster business this weekend, gives movie theaters the boost they really need, and has a long/leggy run both for the rest of its domestic and international run. It deserves as much money as it can get!
Wanna hear my prediction wanna B.O Boy Jack Cayman? Here I go:
1.Dune Part Two-$101 Million
2.Ordinary Angel
3.Bob Marley
4.Chosen
5.Demon Slayer