Looking Back: Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part 1

Although this released only a few months ago, I would like to touch on the performance and what it means for the franchise moving forward

Rewind the clock to late 2022 and early 2023, and expectations were soaring for Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part 1. There was a widespread belief in the existence of a "Maverick Bump" that would elevate this long-running franchise to unprecedented heights. Many online rivals anticipated a worldwide total easily exceeding $1 billion. After all, Tom Cruise was coming off the success of Top Gun: Maverick, which grossed nearly $1.5 billion, and an exciting trailer for Dead Reckoning, promising breathtaking action sequences and impressive stunts, played before all of the Maverick showings.

Reaching $1 billion always seemed like a lofty goal, but I did anticipate earnings surpassing Mission: Impossible - Fallout, which made $220.1 million domestically and $791.6 million worldwide. Now, as we fast-forward to the present day, a Variety article published back in August states, "Not even time-tested adventurers like Indiana Jones and Ethan Hunt are immune to the shifting sands of the movie business... both films are among the summer’s most perplexing disappointments."

Completing its run at $172.1 million domestically and $567.5 million worldwide, Dead Reckoning will not be labeled as the biggest box office bomb of 2023, but it stands as a disappointment to studios and box office enthusiasts. Whether it was the inflated $291 million budget, the over performance of Sound of Freedom, or the inclusion of AI as the villain that contributed to its underperformance, there is no denying that “Barbenhemier” negatively impacted the potential that this film bad.

Released on Wednesday, July 12, 2023, predictions emerged a few weeks earlier, indicating a 3-day opening of $65 million and $90 million for the 5-day, resulting in a worldwide total of $250 million. While not groundbreaking figures, they were slightly ahead of Fallout and not bad considering the backlog of Tom Cruise films. Additionally, studio tracking tends to be conservative, so I anticipated a respectable run for Dead Reckoning.

However, the momentum of “Barbenhemier” was steadily gaining traction, which painted a challenging picture for Dead Reckoning's performance in the subsequent weeks. By Monday, July 17, 2023, the studio actuals conveyed underwhelming results with a 3-day opening of $54.6 million, a 5-day opening of $78.4 million, and a worldwide total reaching $233 million.

After this start, in an ideal scenario without the interference of "Barbenhemier," Dead Reckoning would likely have wrapped up with domestic earnings ranging from $195 million to $209 million and global earnings between $682 million and $694 million—comparable to the performances of Ghost Protocol and Rogue Nation. There is a tinge of disappointment as the anticipated "Maverick Bump" failed to materialize. Nevertheless, in the grand scheme of things, Dead Reckoning ultimately delivered a performance in line with the typical Mission: Impossible film. Fallout is somewhat of an outlier given the sizable $181.1 million it grossed in China, while Dead Reckoning fell considerably short grossing $48.7 million.

Instead, what we witnessed was a relatively front-loaded run, fueled by a massive 65% drop in weekend two. In comparison, Rogue Nation fell 48%, while Fallout only dropped 42%. With a cumulative total of $118.6 million over 18 days, Dead Reckoning exhibited legs comparable to a standard Mission: Impossible film following the introduction of "Barbenhemier." Despite maintaining solid performance in the subsequent weekends, the impact from the second weekend remained evident, leaving Dead Reckoning significantly behind the pace set by Fallout and Rogue Nation.

Dead Reckoning arguably had one of the worst release dates ever for a film in theaters. The same can be said for Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves. Similar to Dead Reckoning, this could have sustained its momentum given the goodwill following its so-so $37.2 million start. However, Paramount chose to release it just 5 days before The Super Mario Brothers, which still baffles me to this day. Consequently, its legs were cut remarkably short, leading to a steep 63% second-weekend drop before concluding with an unfortunate $93.2 million domestically and $208.1 million worldwide against a $150 million budget.

Looking ahead to Paramount's 2024 release calendar, a red flag is already apparent. I am curious why John Krasinski's IF is opening just one week before Garfield. Garfield is anticipated to perform very well, especially after its first trailer, which is not promising for IF, as both films target the same audiences.

This raises questions about the decision-making at Paramount's headquarters. However, can we truly blame Paramount for Dead Reckoning's release date? On paper, a three-hour biopic about Robert Oppenheimer and a Barbie film directed by Greta Gerwig are challenging sells. In contrast, the allure of the seventh installment in a prosperous action franchise, featuring a lead recently hailed as the "box office savior," is much more appealing. At one point, some believed that Dead Reckoning's second weekend would surpass both Barbie and Oppenheimer, especially when the initial long-range tracking suggested $30 million openings for both films.

As the release date for Dead Reckoning approached, signs indicating the need for adjustment should have been acknowledged. While action was taken by moving the date from July 14 to July 12 to allow for more days of IMAX showings, a mere 2-day shift was unlikely to salvage the situation. Rumors circulated that Paramount executives, sensing the growing anticipation for “Barbenhemier,” considered an alternative release date. However, Cruise vetoed the idea, expressing optimism about his film's ability to stand tall amid competition. This decision felt somewhat arrogant. Cruise may have believed that, as the king of summer 2022, he could replicate his success the following summer. A more strategic release date, such as August 4 in place of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (another Paramount release) or even during Christmas, could have been considered. However, for Cruise, it seemed to be mid-July or nothing.

Another critical factor is overestimating Disney. It was crucial for Dead Reckoning to be spaced out from Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, which opened on June 30. Disney had high expectations for this film, anticipating it to be a crowd-pleasing hit. However, in the end, the outcome was not as expected. The reviews were acceptable, and its $60.3 million opening aligned with its $60 million tracking, but these figures proved unsatisfactory against a $300 million budget.

As Disney faces challenges by consistently releasing films with inflated budgets that lack audience interest, it falls upon other studios to fill this gap and compensate for Disney's losses. While a summer without “Barbenhemier” might have benefited Dead Reckoning, comparing one film to the fate of the entire box office is not a fair assessment.

With sequels and spin-offs consistently underperforming or outright bombing, the state of the summer box office rested heavily on the performance of “Barbenhemier” as one final hope. And, indeed, it delivered! Dead Reckoning was simply a victim caught in the massive storm of this cultural phenomenon and was unable to ride the waves.

If the rumors were true, I hope this film's performance serves as a wake-up call for Cruise. By capitalizing on nostalgia and gathering substantial praise, Top Gun: Maverick became a once-in-a-lifetime event that will not be replicated for years, if not decades, to come. If Cruise believed he could achieve the same with the seventh installment in a long-running franchise, then that is a bullish stance. Looking back, I also find it somewhat foolish about my belief in the "Maverick bump."

As Cruise strives to revitalize the industry by pushing the boundaries of cinema, there is a need to go deeper by exploring new options. Despite my appreciation for Dead Reckoning, the film failed to distinguish itself from its predecessors. While it introduced new characters and engaging stunts, the overall feel and tone remained very similar to previous entries. This persistent issue is something audiences have encountered with long-running franchises. Recent entries, such as Creed III and Scream VI, have successfully defied this trend, while others like The Marvels, Shazam! Fury of the Gods, Transformers: Rise of the Beasts, and Fast X, suggest that the time is approaching when these IP’s might need to be retired.

Although, I would like to briefly highlight the global appeal of The Fast and Furious entries. Domestically, the series is done, with the tenth installment grossing $145.9 million, only slightly higher than the $144.7 million earned by the first film in 2001. However, foreign audiences continue to embrace these films as Fast X grossed $558.7 million internationally, with $139.5 million coming from China. This marks a significant decline from the earlier entries, which approached $400 million, and even F9 at $216.9 million. But in 2023, $139.5 million is very commendable, particularly given China's recent reluctance to embrace many of our films.

Despite the significant involvement of Wu Jing, a superstar from Hengdian World Studios, in Meg 2: The Trench, it concluded with a total of $118.7 million. With this contrast, it is evident that Vin Diesel and his crew maintain a considerable amount of popularity in China. Fast X also found support in other territories such as Mexico, Japan, and France. This appeal is a unique characteristic that sets it apart from other franchises currently. Nevertheless, regardless of the value that Dwayne Johnson and Gal Gadot bring to Fast 11, hopefully, Universal concludes this series sooner rather than later. I fear that the time is near when audiences might start to fully reject these films.

The release of Mission: Impossible 8 on May 23, 2025, holds significant importance for the continuation of this franchise. The question remains: will it follow the downward trajectory set by Dead Reckoning, or, with a more favorable release date, can it propel this brand back to the recent heights seen with Ghost Protocol and Rogue Nation, reaching the range of $675-700 million? We observed a comparable underperformance with Mission: Impossible III in 2006, which grossed $134 million domestically and $398.4 million worldwide—a decline from the second installment's $215.4 million and $546.3 million. Fortunately, Ghost Protocol came to the rescue five and a half years later, restoring the franchise's success.

For one, the fact that an eighth installment is coming shows that Paramount is still confident. Dead Reckoning underperformed, but unlike the The Divergent Series: Allegiant or The Amazing Spider-Man 2, it is not a franchise-killing entry. With a 96% approval rating from critics on Rotten Tomatoes and an A CinemaScore, quality was not the issue as folks loved what they saw. This film simply debuted at an inconvenient time, contending with stiff competition from "Barbenhemier" and grappling with the challenges of franchise fatigue.

This was quite unfortunate because out of the many films that I watched this summer, Dead Reckoning and Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse easily stood out as my two favorites. With captivating sequences such as the airport scene, the Rome car chase, and the brawl on a Venice bridge between Gabriel (Esai Morales) and Ilsa Faust (Rebecca Ferguson), this film offered a plethora of breathtaking moments that were held together by a complex story.

Hopefully, the eighth installment has the ability to get things back on track. But with the present state of new films being released from long-running franchises, I would not count on it. And at 61 years old, how much longer can Tom Cruise continue to lead these bombastic, big-budget blockbusters?

As much as I love and respect the guy, Top Gun and Mission: Impossible are the only two things going for him right now. Universal’s The Dark Universe was scrapped after the underperformance of 2017’s The Mummy, he no longer headlines independent films, while Alan Ritchson is the new (and better) version of Jack Reacher. Not to mention, as revealed over the summer, his credibility took a hit after fervently proclaiming The Flash as "The Greatest Superhero Film Ever!"

Regardless of the current narrative surrounding the Mission: Impossible films, there is no denying the tremendous success they have achieved. With a combined budget of $1.119 billion for seven films and a total gross of $4.138 billion, this is certainly an impressive feat that has generated Paramount a substantial profit.

By: WannaB.O. Junior Intern Jack